Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Tom’s Regret; 3-Smokin Amelia
Forecast: Trainer J. Periban looks to have a couple of live runners in the first juvenile race of the season, a four and one-half furlong dash for state-bred fillies. Tom’s Regret recorded a half mile gate work of :47 3/5 (second fastest of 43) six days ago and last month produced a bullet three furlong drill in :35 4/5 (fastest of 19), so it’s safe to assume that the daughter of Tom’s Tribute has more than an average amount of ability. In an unclassified affair, she earns top billing. Stable mate Smokin Amelia looked okay in a half mile gate drill (:49hg) last week. She wasn’t asked at any stage and finished with plenty left. We’ll prefer Tom’s Regret on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Smokin Amelia (April 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B-
Not a bad work for 2-year-old filly, splits of :25.1, :37.2 and :49 flat, easy early but decent in the final stages while gearing up for her debut. Hard to say how quick she is but daughter of Smoken looks like she can finish a bit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Virulente; 1-Travel Smart
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a starter optional claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. Virulente (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) shows up in a seller for the first time after chasing home infinitely tougher foes in her first three West Coast outings after being imported from France. She’s a strong fit based on speed figures, so against this group we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained filly to be along in time. Travel Smart (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5), re-equipped with blinkers, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her inside draw and should settle into a second flight position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. She has a prior win over the local lawn and numbers that fit. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Virulente.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Square Not; 4-Anna’s Music; 6-Sapadilla
Forecast: We’re not sure if she will duplicate her promising (but green) turf debut on the main track, butSquare Not ran better than the line will show when closing well to be third (and galloping out in front) last month, and the daughter of Square Eddie should be capable of producing a sufficient forward move to win this abbreviated dirt sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. The M. Glatt-trained sophomore was off slowly and lost early position, advanced willingly to be within range entering the lane, then lost her momentum briefly when swapping leads but was going as well as anything in the race approaching the wire. We’ll put her on top but also include two other second-time starters, Sapadilla and Anna’s Music, two-three finishers in a strong race won by Everlys Girl. Each stayed on with interest after starting slowly and then looming a threat entering the lane before understandably losing their punch late. With cleaner starts today, both should be in the thick of it throughout.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Chloe’s Girl; 6-Brocade
Forecast: Brocade and Chloe’s Girl, two-three finishers in a maiden affair for older fillies and mares over this track and distance last month, return as the two main contenders in a similar dirt miler, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Chloe’s Girl was making her racing debut in that event, whereas Brocade had the benefit of two prior runs, so under the assumption that ‘Girl has more room to improve, we’ll give her the edge on top. The daughter of Creative Cause likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics under bug boy D. Herrera and if not pressured early she could be hard to catch. A recent sharp workout indicates she’s very likely to improve considerably, so she’ll get the bulk of our action. Brocade has rising speed figures and will always be within striking range outside, so we’re expecting the Into Mischief filly to have every chance to wear down her main rival close home.
Notable Workouts:
Chloe’s Girl (April 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
In team drill outside Make Mine Wine and Girl Ranger (all same time) and did extremely well for M. McCarthy, breezing through the lane (workmates ridden) while coming the final half mile in :22.4 and :47.4, able to go much faster if asked. Daughter of Creative Cause has talent and seems certain to improve with experience.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-La Pulcinela; 1-Floral Essence
Forecast: La Pulcinela (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) returns to her claim level after finishing a solid runner-up while more than six lengths clear of the rest in a tougher starter $25,000 allowance event over this track and distance in late February. She’s always preferred to run second rather than win and therefore isn’t one to completely trust, but against this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 field the daughter of Flatter seems solid enough. Floral Essence (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) is seeking her third straight win and should be including in rolling exotic play as well, even though this will be her first try on dirt and she was a voided claim when beating $20,000 non-winners of two company last time out. In a race lacking in effective closers, the two listed above should be on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Vanisky; 3-Forgotten Views
Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a main track miler for maiden $50,000 California-bred older horses. Vanisky chased home much tougher straight maiden foes in his last pair in which he was victimized by poor starts and troubled trips, so the son of Vronsky should improve a bunch against this group. With a significant break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy D. Herrera, the J. Bonde-trained gelding looks very much like the one to beat. Forgotten Vows shows the preferred two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle, and while he ran better in his first start than he did last time out the N. Drysdale-trained gelding projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home. The speed figure earned in his debut puts him squarely in the hunt.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Rose Maddox; 4-Funny Feline
Forecast: Rose Maddox (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1) is genuine, versatile and improving with racing, so let’s go with the daughter of Grazen on top in this one mile turf event for first-level allowance California-bred sophomore fillies. Fresh from a clever off-the-pace dirt sprint win, the S. Miyadi-trained filly stretches out to a distance she’s proven she can handle, so with regular rider K. Frey aboard we’re expecting her to come right back and score again. Funny Feline (TOC=5-1; ML=7/2) likely will be the controlling speed after dominating a maiden state-bred field sprinting over the local lawn last month. The daughter of Smiling Tiger is stretching out for the first time and may find the trip a bit testing, but if she’s ever going to handle two turns, it’ll likely be in her first try. Preference on top goes to Rose Maddox but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Octopus; 5-Cajun Treasure
Forecast: Octopus (TOC=7/5; ML=7/2) returns waiver protected in his first outing in almost a year in this $20,000 extended sprint for older claimers. In the frame in six of seven career starts, including three wins over the Santa Anita main track, the P. Eurton-trained horse shows a moderate set of workouts leading up to this race, so it’s possible he’ll be a tad short. However, on pure form, he’s good enough to win, so we’ll put him on top while also including Cajun Treasure (TOC=7/2; ML=5-1), another waiver protected comebacker boasting a healthier work tab than our top pick. Always most effective as a late-running sprinter, the son of Treasure Beach should be heard from late.
Notable Workouts:
Octopus (April 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: B-
Gate work inside Nero Tulip (same time) for P. Eurton, splits of :24.4, :48 flat and 1:00.4 (slightly second best, mild urging) before galloping out six furlongs to the wire in 1:15 flat, not bad. Been away for almost a year, probably not 100% cranked up yet but loves this track and should fire a decent shot off the bench.
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Cajun Treasure (April 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
Broke sharply and was always in hand in strong gate work while gearing up for his comeback, splits of :24.3, :36.1, :48 flat and 1:00.1 on our watches, plenty left, while much best over Don’t Talk (4f, :48hg) and Palagio (5f, 1:01.1hg). Should fire a big shot fresh.
View Workout Video
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