The Skinny: First staged in 1920 and arguably the most prestigious race for older horses in Europe, the 12 furlong Prix de l’arc de Triomphe over the right handed Longchamp Race Course in Paris will have 16 starters on Sunday and is likely to be contested over soft, sticky going. Due to the suspect condition of the ground, this year’s renewal presents a truly challenging handicapping exercise.
The Main Contenders: We know Sosie loves the Longchamp layout (he’s a perfect three-for-three) and his form over wet grass has been clearly established, so this lightly raced son of the brilliant 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars has much in his favor. The highly gifted sophomore – a winner overall of four of six starts - enters the race fresh from a thoroughly convincingly victory in the Prix Niel-G1 over this course and distance in mid-September in a performance that produced yet another career top (123) Racing Post Rating. On pure figures, the colt has never taken a backward move, so we doubt he’s reached his ceiling just yet.
And if that weren’t enough, Sosie hails from the Andre Fabre yard, which has produced no less than eight Arc victories. No trainer has won more. Punters planning to attack the exotics should strongly consider Fabre’s other two starters, Mqse De Sevigne (winner of six of her last seven starts) and the long shot Sevenna’s Knight (successful in three of his last four), at least underneath.
Others to consider: Trainer Aidan O’Brien is represented by two runners, the best of which is Los Angeles, beaten a length in the 10 furlong Irish Championship S.-G1 last time out but equally effective if not better over this longer journey and more than capable over a wet surface. Also with a reasonable look is the Frankel colt Delius, in the frame behind Sosie in both of his last two appearances, and certainly capable of getting at least piece of it.
The Gamble: The key to our success is getting Sosie home on top. We’ll use him in the straight pool and then hook him up top and bottom in the exotics with his stable mates Mqse De Sevigne and Sevenna’s Knight, and to a lesser extent with Los Angeles and Delius.
The Selections: 13-Sosie; 14-Los Angeles; 3-Mqse De Sevigne; 12-Delius.
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