1 - We had a sneaky feeling that Messier might be vulnerable in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 last Saturday, his 50 cents on the dollar price notwithstanding. After the 2-year-old colt’s three and one-half length victory in the Bob Hope S.-G3 at Del Mar last month, on the surface a convincing score that followed his more than six length maiden stroll at Santa Anita in October, we had expressed some uneasiness due to the high expectations that some – including us – had placed upon the son of Empire Maker after his Santa Anita maiden win. In this column a few weeks back, we stated that his Bob Hope S. win wasn’t as good as it looked, that it was in fact a “let down,” and given his pristine trip, a truly good colt would have annihilated his foes, not just outstayed them. We also called his final quarter mile (:26 2/5) “mediocre.”
Still, there were reasons to believe he’d produced a much better effort last Saturday. Blinkers were being re-equipped, his pedigree suggested he would enjoy the two-turn trip, and recent works were sparkling. But what was saw in the Futurity actually was quite similar to what we witnessed in the Bob Hope, and this time it wasn’t good enough to beat a California-bred son of Nyquist named Slow Down Andy, himself a beaten favorite (at even money) in a state-bred affair at Del Mar on the Breeders’ Cup undercard.
What was most disappointing was that Messier failed to find extra under pressure in the final furlong and went down by a length in a race in which the winner was assigned a moderate 85 Beyer speed figure. So far, the juvenile crop in California, other than soon-to-be named Eclipse Award winner Corniche (who is wintering in Kentucky), has turned out to be underwhelming so far.
2 - Trainer Bob Baffert no doubt was disappointed in Messier’s performance but earlier on the same program he had to be pleased with the smart debut of Doppelganger, a son of Into Mischief that brought $570,00 as the Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling Sale last year. Out of the New York stakes winning mare Twice the Lady, he probably wasn’t beating a whole lot in the six furlong sprint, but he did manage to score from the dreaded rail post position (the inside lanes are death at this track) to score handsomely with a thoroughly acceptable (for a first-timer) 80 Beyer speed figure. He had plenty left in reserve at the finish, so we expect he’ll have no trouble stretching out. A possible next start would be the Sham S.-G3 over a mile at Santa Anita on New Year’s Day, the same race that Baffert saddled the first two finishers last winter, Life Is Good and Medina Spirit.
3 - Trainer Todd Pletcher, always loaded with good young prospects during the early portion of the Gulfstream Park championship season, took the wraps off a couple of juvenile colts on Saturday, both of which figure to participate in stakes races for Derby-aged runners after the first of the year. In the fourth race, the Speightstown colt Dean’s List was sent off as the second choice at 6/5 and never looked like losing, pressing the pace from his comfortable outside draw and then drawing clear when given his cute to graduate by more than five lengths in 1:09.92, which translated to an impressive 83 Beyer speed figure. However, he never changed leads, and is not likely to reach his potential until he gets his proper footwork down.
About 90 minutes later in the seventh race, the Pletcher-trained Emmanuel took serious early, middle, and late action before finally leaving as the 7/5 favorite despite having the difficult task of going the one-turn mile from the rail post. No matter. The son of More Than Ready, a $350,000 Keeneland yearling, made the running while mostly in hand to the head of lane and then drew off as much the best from another extremely well-meant first-timer, Touch Code, winning by nearly seven lengths while never being asked for his best (‘Code five lengths clear of the rest and will be odds-on next time). Though the winner’s Beyer speed figure was 78 - five points below the fig for Dean’s List - he was to our eyes considerably more pleasing in victory. His dam, the unraced Hard Spun mare Hard Cloth, is a half-sister to two Grade-1 winners (Hawkbill, Free Drop Billy) and since he’s already won at a mile, there’s no reason to think he won’t handle additional ground down the road.
4 The veteran gelding Hollis had raced 21 times prior to his appearance in a three-other-than allowance sprint at Oaklawn Park last Friday. The durable and consistent son of Street Sense had made a nice living in allowance races and restricted stakes on the “B” circuit over the years while compiling earnings just shy of $400,000, the bulk of which was earned after being claimed by John Ortiz for $50,000 a year ago May at Churchill Downs. Prior to the race, perhaps the best you could say about him was that while he’d never shown the talent to beat a good horse, it usually took a good horse to beat him.
So, when Hollis made his first start in more than three months in a race that was headlined by the brilliantly-fast Nashville, his closing odds (4-1) didn’t appear to be particularly attractive to the punters, even though there was no guarantee that Nashville, in his first start in nearly a year, would return as well as he left. Turns out, even if he did, Nashville may not have been able to outrun him. Earning a Grade-1 level Beyer Speed figure of 109 (10 points better than his previous career top), Hollis stalked Nashville (2/5) to the head of the lane and then blew him away, winning by four and one-half lengths while breaking the Oaklawn Park five and one-half furlong track record by stopping the timer in a blistering 1:02.17.
Hollis is pretty good anywhere he performs but is nowhere better than at Oaklawn Park, where his record now stands at three starts with two wins and a second. It’ll be interesting to see if he returns to Earth in his next outing, but with the meeting at Hot Springs, Arkansas extended to early May, he’ll have plenty of chances to solidify the “horse for course” angle.
5 - Nominations were released yesterday for the six stakes races that are scheduled for opening day, Sunday, December 26 at Santa Anita, including the final Grade-1 event of the 2021 calendar year, the Malibu S. over seven furlongs on the main track in a race restricted to 3-year-olds. This is no ordinary feature race; it will match Flightline, undefeated in two starts by a combined 26 lengths, each victory with a triple-digit Beyer speed figure; Dr. Schivel, a nose away in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 from earning an Eclipse Award in the sprint division, and American Pharoah’s half-brother Triple Tap, also perfect in two starts with a pair of daylight wins but, like Flightline, untested in stakes competition.
Yet another eye-catching workout (5f, :59.4h) yesterday by Flightline appeared on the xbtv.com website. We caught him a ticket slower on our watch with splits of :24 flat (hard held), :35.4, and 1:00 flat before being coaxed out to the seven furlong pole in 1:13.1. The John Sadler-trained son of Tapit looked terrific, as always.
Meanwhile, Triple Tap (6f, 1:12.2h) breezed in company with Classier (5f, 1:00.1h) and was clearly best while under mild urging, splits of :24.1 and :36.4 from the quarter pole to the seven furlong pole. According to his speed figures, he’s not in the same area code as Flightline, but there's a strong probability that we haven’t seen anywhere close to his best just yet.
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