Jeff Siegel: Del Mar Wagering Strategies | Thursday, November 25, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1:  Post:  11:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Melting Snow; 4-Sweet Soulmate

Forecast: The Thanksgiving Day opener (early first post time 11:00 a.m.) drew just five entrants for a $40,000 claiming dash restricted to 3-year-old fillies.  The P. Miller barn – unusually ice cold during this abbreviated Fall season – is represented by two main players including morning like favorite Melting Snow, a winner of five of 10 career starts including a solid score over this track and distance during the summer meeting.  Below form in her last pair, the daughter of Dialed In shows a healthy work tab since raced and remains at her claim level, so it would appear her connections still have confidence in her.  Worth including on your ticket is Sweet Soulmate, a first-off-the-claim play for R. Baltas and a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track.  The daughter of Twirling Candy may be the best of the speed types but always has been suspect in the closing stages of her race.  Perhaps she’ll stick better for her new connections.

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RACE 2:  Post: 11:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Eddie’s New Dream

Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream projects to enjoy a very soft pace-setting trip and should be quite capable of capitalizing on the favorable pace flow.  A troubled fifth in the Autumn Miss S.-G3 at Santa Anita last month, the daughter of Square Eddie returns to the first-level allowance ranks and with rising speed figures, two easy breezes since raced, and a win two races back that if repeated today would be more than good enough to handle this assignment.  At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3:  Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Herd Immunity; 4-Sea to Success

Forecast: Sea to Success crushed a $32,000 field last month at Santa Anita with a career top speed figure and seems capable of winning right back despite the raise to the $50,000 level given his improving pattern since joining the K. Mullhall barn.  A prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the son of Anchor Downs can be effective on the lead or from a stalking position, so regular pilot R. Gonzalez can choose his strategy depending upon the race flow in this seven furlong affair.  Herd Immunity, runner-up in his last pair, most recently with a career top speed figure, may find himself as the controlling speed.  If he can shake loose early, the son of Union Rags may get brave.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the preference on top to Sea to Success

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RACE 4:  Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Pulpit Rider; 3-Bacchanalia; 4-Norma Jean B.

Forecast: Here’s a fairly wide open middle distance turf even for second-level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  Norman Jean B. has made steady progress since joining the V. Cerin barn and is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar grass course.  A solid runner-up in the Swingtime S. last month at Santa Anita, the daughter of Tapiture tries a softer group today while being reunited with “win rider” K. Desormeaux and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, ground-saving trip and then have her chance to produce a winning late kick.  Pulpit Rider was a clever winner over the local lawn two races back in a race that produced a career top speed figure, one that is considerably better than par for this level.  Overmatched when sprinting in the subsequent California Distaff H. at Santa Anita last month, she stretches out again to her preferred trip and is back with F. Prat, who was aboard in her win in the Solana Beach S. here in mid-August.  A repeat of that effort today probably would be good enough.  Eastern invader Bacchanalia, now in the P. D’Amato barn, projects to be prominent throughout and more dangerous than her morning line of 10 might indicate.  She can be tough on the front end or from a stalking position and from where she’s drawn seems likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip.  

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RACE 5:  Post: 1:02 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Morning Addiction; 3-Flat Out Joy

Forecast: This is an inscrutable restricted (nw-3) $25,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares in which no result could be considered surprising.  Use as many as you can afford to.  For small ticket players, we suggest you include the two listed above. There are things to like about Morning Addiction, though she must leave from the rail and this track often produces a bias against the inside lanes.  You should take note of the earlier results to see how the dirt strip is playing.  With a prior win over the local main track, the route-to-sprint angle, and numbers that are competitive at this level, the daughter of Carpe Diem should be within range throughout and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on.  At 8-1 on the morning line, she offers intriguing value. Flat Out Joy, first or second in three of four career starts at Del Mar, projects to be within range throughout, and with a bullet half mile workout just six days ago at Santa Anita (:47.4h fastest of 31) the S. McCarthy-trained mare should be set for a major effort.  

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RACE 6:  Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Single: Luck

Forecast: Luck did not draw into the field for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, which was a shame because we actually thought the daughter of Kitten’s Joy had a reasonable long shot look to hit the board and maybe even pull off a major upset.  Instead, she surfaces in this year’s edition of the 11-furlong Red Carpet H. and is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite after narrowly missing in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 in early October.  Already proven over the local course with an authoritative score in her U.S. debut in overnight company during the summer season, the R. Baltas-trained filly continues to work lights out and with just six career starts (three wins) she has plenty of room for further development.  She’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.  

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RACE 7: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-King Apollo; 4-Katonah

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, this one for maiden $50,000 claiming juveniles over the extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs.  In this case we’ll lean on the first-time maiden-to-maiden claiming angle and try to survive and advance using just Katonah and King Apollo in rolling exotic play.  Katonah, though soundly-beaten in all three of his starts to date, has buried speed figures that make him the one to beat, as his third place effort two runs back earned a number that is considerably stronger than par for this level.  ‘Apollo has two previous outings, both on grass, so we’re largely guessing on how he’ll perform on dirt, but the son of Palace Malice has been his own worst enemy so far (rank in his debut, off slowly in his second start) so perhaps he will have gained sufficient experience to show his best stuff against this infinitely softer field.  At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth including on your ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Katonah (November 20, 5f, 1:01h).  Grade: B
Breezing outside Miss Everything (5f, 1:01.4h) for Desormeaux, never asked while drawing clear to be clear by three lengths with plenty left.  Better than his form might indicate and will be dangerous with a class drop.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8:  Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cleopatra’s Strike; 6-Offlee Naughty

Forecast: The finale is a mini-marathon affair for first-level allowance horses in a race that drew a full field of 12.  Cleopatra’s Strike seems to be coming around a bit after finishing a solid runner-up in a similar affair over a slightly shorter trip at Santa Anita last month.  Winless the last two years with only victories to go along with 13 runner-up efforts during his career, he may not be one to trust, but he’s an ex-classer with earning in excess of a half million dollars and may step into a different dimension at this longer journey.  Offlee Naughty is a lightly-raced and improving 3-year-old that should enjoy this three-turn affair.  A clever maiden winner at Santa Anita two runs back, the son of Flashback ran better than the line will show when closing with interest to be fourth into slow fractions at 15-1 in a better-than-average middle distance race over the local lawn three weeks ago.  The M. McCarthy-trained colt shows a nice breeze in the interim and has a grinding, staying style that should play well at this trip, so with another forward move today he’ll offer some price value at 6-1 on the morning line.  

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