Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Miss Kitness; 6-Mongolian Window
Forecast: Mongolian Winter makes a monumental trainer change to J. Wong, who’s had a slow meeting but may be starting to heat up and adds blinkers while moving up a level in this $10,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. Based strictly on speed figures she’s a fit off her best race, so in an open affair she appears as good as any. Miss Kitness is likely the controlling speed and could get brave stretching out after a recent sprint tightener on grass against a much tougher field. She’s won two-turning in the past, and in a field in which the closers are highly suspect the S. Ruis-trained filly may get loose on the lead and never look back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Delta Wind
Forecast: Delta Wind didn’t leave cleanly and lost early position and her best chance when fifth in a state-bred sprint on grass earlier this month. With a better break today on the main track, the J. Sadler-trained filly should be quick enough to run her rivals off their feet. She has a history of being vulnerable in the final furlong – she blew a five-length lead when worn down late at Los Alamitos two races back – but against this modest group she should have every chance to stick it out. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single but not take too much lower than her 2-1 morning line in the win pool.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Wound Tight; 5-Red Storm Risen; 6-Galilean
Forecast: Galilean was quite unlucky when unplaced as the favorite in a state-bred stakes over this course and distance last month. The son of Uncle Mo was blocked and shuffled back on the turn to lose valuable position, lacked a clear path entering the lane, then finished interest without having any chance to pose a threat while winding up sixth, beaten just over three lengths. He switches to U. Rispoli, and with clear sailing today he should be more than capable of making amends. Red Storm Risen produced a good late kick to win over this course and distance from a lesser allowance field last month, has trained quite well since, and looks dangerous on the raise for the hot P. D’Amato barn. First or second in six of 11 career starts, the genuine and consistent son of Stormy Atlantic likes to settle and produce a late kick and that’s the kind of trip he’ll get from J. Bravo, who stays aboard. Wound Tight, in his third start off a layoff, is most effective as the controlling speed and could be tough if he can secure that type of journey, though Sash, despite being drawn on the far outside, has plenty of early speed and may have an impact on the pace flow.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Surely Spectacular
Forecast: Here’s a maiden claiming sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies that is loaded with first time starters. As a group, they haven’t shown a whole lot leading up to this race, so let’s settle on the proven element, Surely Spectacular. She’s had three prior runs and has displayed improvement in her speed figures in each outing, most recently finishing with interest to be second before galloping out nicely. Today, the daughter of Texas Ryano gets an extra half-furlong to work with, so if she can work out a decent trip from the rail the A. Lerner-trained filly should be along in time. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Warfront Fighter; 7-Circle Back; 8-Try to Capture
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden $20,000 older horses sprint five and one-half furlongs, and you know it’s a weak affair when 17-race maiden Warfront Fighter looks the best of the lot. The New York invader, freshened since June, was claimed for $20,000 two races back and arrives eligible to the ship-and-win bonus money with speed figures that make him the one to beat. He’s hit the board in his last seven starts, so maybe today he can finally break through. Try to Capture has been training at San Luis Rey Downs while showing a decent series of workouts for P. Miller, so maybe he can run a bit. Purchased as a yearling for $67,000 and debuting for $20,000 is not a confidence-inspiring move, but this barn will run them where they can win and against this bunch it’s hard to imagine that he can’t at least be competitive. Circle Back hails from a clever outfit with maidens and the work tab doesn’t look half bad. We’ll toss him in.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Perfectionistic
Forecast: Perfectionistic encountered severe trouble in a similar sprint over this course and distance last month and did extremely well to finish as close as he did (fourth, beaten less than four lengths). By the time the field galloped out to the clubhouse turn the lightly-raced son of Vronsky was well clear in front, so today, if he can enjoy clear sailing from a stalking, second flight position the P. D’Amato-trained homebred has a chance to be along in time. At 5-1 on the morning line he offers a good gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Bella Vita; 9-Big Sweep
Forecast: Bella Vita has been facing tougher foes and actually didn’t run badly last time out when forcing the pace and then weakening late after breaking through the gate prior to the start. She’s reunited with “win rider: F. Prat, shows three easy breezes since raced, and will be tough to beat if she minds her manners before they spring the latch. Big Sweep failed at even money when runner-up at this level earlier this month without apparent mishap. It was just her second start of the year, so she has a right to improve, and from her comfortable draw the M. Glatt-trained filly is guaranteed a soft stalking trip. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Bella Vita.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Clare; 2-Keep Dancing; 8-She’s a Dime
Forecast:The main contention appears to be drawn inside with Big Clare and Keep Dancing, second and third, respectively, vs. similar over this course and distance earlier this month, square off again after finishing heads apart last time out. The former enjoyed a dream run while saving ground throughout and getting through at a critical stage in the final furlong while the latter trailed early, had a ton of ground to make and just ran out of room after altering course in mid-stretch. Today, whoever gets the best trip likely will win, though pace players recognizing the possibility of a race with soft early splits may find the need to include the likely controlling speed, She’s a Dime. Unproven on grass but reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo, the D. O’Neill-trained mare has back numbers that are more than good enough to win, so at 8-1 on the morning line she may wind up being the most attractive gamble in the field.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: Team Merchants
Forecast: Team Merchants isn’t a stakes winner – he’s never even raced in one – but this gifted colt gets a chance at the big boys in this year’s renewal of the Shared Belief S. The son off Nyquist, highly impressive beating older horses in a recent fast, highly-rated sprint, stretches out for the first time, but the added distance shouldn’t be an issue and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the lead, though he certainly doesn’t need to be. The D. O’Neill-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m., and while he’s thoroughly untested against this type of competition there’s little doubt that he has that type of potential. We’ll take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Aligato; 6-Sottocapo; 9-Torrid Tommy; 10-Big Summer
Forecast: Big Summer is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and looks very much like the best of the known element. In the frame in both of his starts, most recently when missing by a neck after being impeded at the break, the son of Mr. Big should have clear sailing outside in this maiden special weight grass dash for state-bred older horses. Dangerous new shooters from winning outfits include a couple of good workers from San Luis Rey Downs (Aligato) and Los Alamitos (Sotocapo), and Torrid Tommy, bred strictly for grass and also showing some ability in local works for barn that does very well with first time starters. It’s a spread race, with a number of price probabilities to finish out the day.
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