Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-So Much Happy; 5-Zabava
Forecast: So Much Happy returns to her proper level and catches a field that should allow her to gain her coveted front-running trip. As the controlling speed in this $35,000 claiming field of fillies and mares, the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Twirling Candy should be hard to catch. Zabava moves up a notch for K. Mulhall, who has superior stats with the first-off-the-claim angle (31%), so we’re expecting the veteran mare to continue her good recent consistent form. She likes to settle and blast home, so if she can get a little help up front the daughter of Skipshot will be dangerous late. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Morning Addiction; 7-American Bourbon; 8-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: Flat Out Joy toyed with a modest (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field sprinting 12 days ago and is wheeled back on short rest on the one level raise to a (nw-3) $20,000 miler in her first-off-the-claim for D. O’Neill. The quick turnaround is of some concern, but this will be her first try around two turns (bred for it) and we suspect she will run just as well routing as she does going short. American Bourbon is drawn just inside of her and likely will be committed to a front-running trip, relegating Flat Out Joy to a stalker’s role (no worries, she can win that way). ‘Bourbon returns to dirt, a surface she’s never won on, and the J. Wong barn is something like 1-for-31 at the meeting, but front speed is always dangerous, so we’ll toss her in. Morning Addiction won a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seller in clever fashion in late July (beating Flat Out Joy) but returns for new trainer A. Lerner at a lesser price, so it’s a tad concerning that the connections aren’t protecting her. These are the three we’ll be including on our ticket; preference on top goes to Flat Out Joy.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Conquest Cobra; 2-Studly Perfection
Forecast: Conquest Cobra makes a significant barn change to S. Miyadi via a $16,000 claim. Today, the ex-classer drops to the $10,000 level for a trainer that hits with 21% with the first-off-the-claim angle while also picking up one of the stable’s “go to” riders A. Cedillo. This looks like a drop for the money run. Studly Perfection exits the same race as our top pick and should stick much better today after flashing speed along the deep rail but then understandable faltering through the lane. Front-running tactics surely will be employed, and with the track now kinder to inside speed, the K. Mulhall-trained gelding could get loose and get very brave. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Oviatt Class; 4-Flying Drummer
Forecast: Flying Drummer and Oviatt Class, two-three finishers earlier this month in a hot maiden sprint won by the talented Montebello, meet again in this main track miler for juveniles, and both have the pedigrees to step forward considerably around two turns. ‘Drummer, from the first crop of Gun Runner, missed by a head after battling bravely through the lane in a very promising debut for B. Baffert, whose record with second-timers is quite good (22%). Oviatt Class, making his third career start, finished willingly to be a close third and sports the two-sprints-and-a-stretch angle that should have him plenty fit for this distance. By Bernardini from a mare by Tiznow, the K. Desormeaux-trained colt really has a nice future as the distances increase. We’ll give Flying Drummer the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Avigale; 6-Steak and Cheese
Forecast: Steak and Cheese ran well earlier this month at this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming level over the local lawn when a close fourth (moved up to third) in his first outing since arriving from Indiana. The M. Maker-trained gelding has had just five career starts, so there’s room for improvement, and with U. Ripsoli staying aboard and in a race that probably will have soft early splits, the pace-pressing Mizzen Mast gelding seems the logical top pick. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Avigale, a J. Mullins-trained gelding dropping into a seller for the first time and making his third start in his current form cycle. He was simply overmatched when facing first-level allowance foes, but he has speed figures that are quite competitive in this league.
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RACE 6: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Miss Bigly
Forecast: Miss Bigly returns from the Midwest in much better form than she left, and if she repeats any of her last three races the P. D’Amato-trained mare will be hard to beat in this year’s renewal of the restricted Tranquility Lake S. over a mile on the main track. Runner-up in two listed stakes races while earning strong speed figures, the daughter of Gemologist has been freshened since late June but shows a local work tab that should have her plenty fit. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez takes the call and projects to find himself in an ideal stalking position behind need-the-lead Miss Stormy D and then be able to take command when ready.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Tiz the Tale
Forecast: Tiz the Tale finally makes it to the races after bringing $375,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale more than a year ago. There’s not much in his immediate female family but this colt previewed as well as anything in the sale, breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds while displaying lovely action and a nice, long stride. Obviously he’s had his issues, but his recent local a.m. tab looks solid for a barn whose first-timers often run better than they work, so in a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, let’s hope this colt can leave with his field and show his best stuff. We’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 7-Proud Veteran; 9-Doncic; 10-Safe Combination
Forecast:There are probably lots of stories surrounding this $32,000 maiden claimer that offers all kinds of possibilities featuring first-timers, shippers, comebackers, and workouts from San Luis Rey Downs that nobody knows anything about. Good luck! Proud Veteran, a Midwest invader who hasn’t been out in almost a year, returns as a first-time gelding and has been burning up the track at the training center for a low profile outfit. There’s no question the son of Justin Philip has speed, and maybe against this group he can clear early and never look back. Doncic shows awful form, but he continues to train like he can run. If J. Sadler, who claimed him for $100,000 out his debut last April, can get this colt to perform in the p.m. as well as he does in the morning, he may have something. Safe Combination, a $20,000 claim by a low profile trainer, earned an okay speed figure when a close fifth in his debut and may improve off that effort from a comfortable outside draw under U. Rispoli. In a race in which nothing would surprise, each of the three listed above have a right to run well so include them in your rolling exotics along with anything else that catches your eye.
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