Sha Tin Selections by International Handicapper Luke Middlebrook
First post: Saturday, 11:25 pm ET (US)
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Race 1: #13 Invincible Lucky, #1 City Thunder, #12 Monarch County, #2 Patch Of Time
Race 2: #6 Master Phoenix, #12 Dragon Four Seas, #5 Jubilant Winner, #7 Packing Angel
Race 3: #1 Savvy Brilliant, #8 Patch Of Cosmo, #4 Divano, #13 Lifeline Express
Race 4: #3 Luxembourg, #6 Marquisat, #13 Stellenbosch, #1 Without A Fight
Race 5: #1 Ka Ying Rising, #12 Helios Express, #3 Lugal, #8 Toshin Macau
Race 6: #1 Bravehearts, #8 Family Jewel, #4 Star Mac, #6 Eighteen Carat
Race 7: #6 Galaxy Patch, #1 Soul Rush, #2 Voyage Bubble, #12 Jantar Mantar
Race 8: #1 Romantic Warrior, #9 Liberty Island, #4 Tastiera, #3 Straight Arron
Race 9: #3 Johannes Brahms, #6 Charming Legend, #13 Markwin, #9 Leslie
Race 10: #10 Packing Hermod, #9 Young Champion, #4 Drombeg Banner, #12 Rubylot
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Race 1 - SILENT WITNESS HANDICAP
#13 Invincible Lucky returns from a seven-month layoff, but he showed ability last season. With Mark Newnham in fine form, his runners with a similar profile often warrant significant respect. This untapped four-year-old looks worth a chance in what is shaping up to be a wide-open contest. #1 City Thunder was heavily backed last time but was unlucky, caught behind a wall of traffic in the home straight and never getting a proper run. Should he find clear running from another low draw here, he can win. #12 Monarch County is making just his third career start but has been unlucky in both previous runs, racing wide without cover on each occasion, especially last time when he was caught very wide. With a much better draw in gate 2 here, he should be able to produce an improved performance. #2 Patch Of Time is in excellent form for the Cody Mo yard as he chases a hat-trick of wins.
Race 2 - BEAUTY GENERATION HANDICAP
#6 Master Phoenix impressed on debut with a strong second-place finish after being steadied early from a wide draw over 1200m. He can settle closer from barrier 1 and has looked sharp in a trial between runs. #12 Dragon Four Seas benefits from a jockey upgrade with James McDonald aboard and has drawn perfectly to suit his on-pace running style. Worked too hard early last time over a mile but should relish the drop back in distance. #5 Jubilant Winner is set to improve big-time after drawing a mid-gate, having faced an uphill task from gate 12 last time. Despite that, he finished strongly to claim sixth. He has since won a trial heat convincingly and is in fine form. #7 Packing Angel, though disappointing as a beaten favourite last time, only faded late after working hard early from a wide gate and can improve with a kinder run.
Race 3 - LORD KANALOA HANDICAP
#1 Savvy Brilliant has developed a habit of being slow out of the gates in recent runs. After being slowly away last time, he also suffered a check that worsened his chances but stormed home late into second. He should be bouncing back a winner here. #8 Patch Of Cosmo was up against it from a wide draw last time, forcing the jockey to settle back and ride for luck. He worked home strongly to finish fourth, just 1.5 lengths behind, in his first attempt at Class 3, which was highly encouraging. #4 Divano had no luck last time, being held up for most of the straight and eased down. He’s better than that effort suggests, as his prior form shows. #13 Lifeline Express ran a bold race on his first try in Class 3 from a wide gate. Third-up now and drawing a mid-field barrier improves his prospects.
Race 4 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE
#3 Luxembourg profiles well in what is the most competitive of the International races. He came close in last year’s Hong Kong Cup, finishing just a short head behind Romantic Warrior. Earlier this year, he secured his first win over 2400m in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom and represents Aidan O’Brien, the most successful trainer in this race’s history. #6 Marquisat catches the eye from the yard of Andr� Fabre, who trained the winner of this race last year, Junko. While disappointing as the favourite in the GP von Bayern last time, he was checked at the start and again on the home turn. His prior solid form reads well. #13 Stellenbosch, a three-year-old Japanese filly with Joao Moreira booked, is sure to attract plenty of attention. Her third-place finish in the Shuka Sho behind Cervinia sets her up well for this. #1 Without A Fight made a superb return from a 12-month layoff, finishing third to the high-class Via Sistina in the VRC Champions Stakes at Flemington. The 2023 Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup winner will strip fitter and cannot be overlooked.
Race 5 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT
#1 Ka Ying Rising steps up to Group 1 company for the first time and would need to seriously underperform to lose this. The thriving four-year-old has cemented his status as Hong Kong’s leading sprinter–if not the world’s–with three impressive wins this season. He underscored his talent by breaking Sacred Kingdom’s long-standing 1200m track record at Sha Tin in his latest outing. #12 Helios Express has been in excellent form this campaign since resuming from his Derby campaign, finishing strongly into placings behind Ka Ying Rising on both occasions. #3 Lugal, one of three Japan-trained sprinters, delivered a big victory in September’s Sprinters Stakes over Toshin Macau when returning from a setback. He is a serious talent who cannot be overlooked. #8 Toshin Macau fits a similar profile, finishing hard along the fence for second to Lugal in the Sprinters Stakes.
Race 6 - JIM AND TONIC HANDICAP
#1 Bravehearts is in superb form since joining the Mark Newnham stable this term and is seeking a hat-trick of wins. His upward trajectory makes it hard to gauge his limits as he continues to impress. #8 Family Jewel, a handy type on the rise for Caspar Fownes, was a close runner-up to Bravehearts last time. With James McDonald aboard and a mid-draw, he could turn the tables depending on their respective positions in running. #4 Star Mac is edging closer to a breakthrough victory after placing in his last two starts. #6 Eighteen Carat was close-up to a strong pace in his latest run and understandably faded late. With a better draw in barrier 2, Andrew Atzeni has options to give him a more efficient trip.
Race 7 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG MILE
#6 Galaxy Patch might have disappointed as a beaten favourite last start, but his third-place finish in a small field came with plenty of excuses. He is better suited to a full field with a more genuine tempo and looks poised to secure his maiden Group 1 victory. #1 Soul Rush produced a scintillating effort from a wide draw in this race last year, finishing fourth behind Golden Sixty. His consistency since includes a third to Romantic Warrior in the Yasuda Kinen and a recent win in the Mile Championship. #2 Voyage Bubble placed second to Golden Sixty in this event last year and was last seen winning the Jockey Club Mile. He is set to enjoy a favourable on-pace run. #12 Jantar Mantar is a lightly raced talent from Japan with four wins from six starts, including an unbeaten record over 1600m. Not seen since May, his NHK Mile Cup victory from a wide draw was classy, and his Satsuki Sho third had a ton of merit in a fast-run race.
Race 8 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP
#1 Romantic Warrior chases a record third consecutive Hong Kong Cup victory. Hong Kong’s reigning Horse of the Year has been in superb form, resuming with a commanding win in the Jockey Club Cup last month. He will take some beating here. #9 Liberty Island returned from a seven-month injury layoff in the Tenno Sho Autumn, caught wide throughout before fading late to finish 13th. The 2023 Japanese Triple Tiara winner, and a runner-up finish to Equinox in the Japan Cup, she demands respect if bouncing back. #4 Tastiera put in a game effort when second to Do Deuce in the Tenno Sho Autumn on his seasonal return, marking one ofhis better runs since winning the 2023 Japanese Derby. This trip looks ideal, and he should figure prominently. #3 Straight Arron may be overlooked and could inject some value. Fourth to Romantic Warrior last year with a luckless run, he is now third-up to his best distance and primed for his best effort since joining Ricky Yiu’s stable this season.
Race 9 - MAURICE HANDICAP
#3 Johannes Brahms showed plenty of promise on debut, finishing a narrow third from a wide draw, beaten less than a length. With natural improvement and a better barrier (4) this time, he looks the one to beat, especially with Zac Purton staying aboard. #6 Charming Legend was highly impressive on debut, scoring convincingly for Danny Shum. While Zac Purton seemingly opts for Johannes Brahms, James McDonald is a quality replacement. He faces a tougher task from barrier 10. #13 Markwin comes into this on the back of a commanding maiden win in Class 4 and looks capable of stepping up in grade for the Cody Mo yard. #9 Leslie has turned in strong late finishes in recent runs and now gets the benefit of barrier 2. Mickael Barzalona is an astute booking, and this Michael Chang-trained runner is primed fourth-up.
Race 10 - HIGHLAND REEL HANDICAP
#10 Packing Hermod had his winning streak snapped last time but lost no admirers with a runner-up finish to Green N White. That effort came on his first try at 1400m and in Class 2, and he should be primed to make amends with Joao Moreira, the 'Magic Man', taking the reins. #9 Young Champion raced too keenly over a mile last time, which may have left him without a finishing effort. The drop back in trip suits, giving him a strong chance to rebound. #4 Drombeg Banner looks set for a reasonably soft lead on paper and will ensure his rivals have to chase him down, as is his typical style. #12 Rubylot didn’t fire on his initial attempt in this grade last start, but he has been kept sharp with a nice trial and deserves another chance to prove himself.
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