Friday’s card at Gulfstream Park welcomes turf racing back to the South Florida scene after a few weeks of course regeneration. Let’s get you up to speed on handicapping the grass at Gulfstream, courtesy of the Betmix database.
Since the Royal Palm Meet opened in April, the 2024 summer turf set at Gulfstream has been dominated by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with 21 wins, but he’s been favored in an overwhelming share of those scores and has exhibited a flat-bet loss ROI for bettors. Mark Casse (11) is the only other barn in double-digit victories. Jose D’Angelo and David Fawkes have had the barns with a positive ROI on turf. Jockeys Edgard Zayas (27 wins), Edwin Gonzalez (24) and Leonel Reyes (23) all are hitting 18-22% on the lawn during that span and top the colony.
The Sunshine Meet opens with the start of September and runs through Thanksgiving when the Championship Meet takes flight. Digging into the Betmix database going back to 2019, the September-October-November turf scene at Gulfstream Park has seen 40% winning favorites on turf during that span.
Trainers who have won 20% or higher and shown a positive ROI during that timeframe include David Fawkes, Saffie Joseph Jr., Amador Sanchez and Patrick Biancone. Top turf jockeys are as expected, Emisael Jaramillo and Edgard Zayas, but note strong numbers from Paco Lopez when he returns from New Jersey during this part of the calendar.
An interesting handicapping note comes in turf sprints, where the rail (post 1) has won 19% with a $1.34 ROI for every $1 bet during this time of year since 2019.
Upcoming Gulfstream Turf Stakes
Sept. 21 // Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint (3up), Ginger Punch Handicap (f/m)
Sept. 28 // Hollywood Beach (2yo)
Oct. 26 // Our Dear Peggy (2yo f)
Nov. 1 // Cellars Shiraz (3yo f)
Nov. 2 // Armed Forces (2yo), Showing Up (3yo)
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