The 40th Breeders’ Cup World Championships kick off on Friday, November 3 at ‘The Great Race Place,’ Santa Anita Park. And if I do my job just right (note to self: no pressure), we’ll hopefully have your bankroll covered for racing’s premier two-day event with the click of one button. Make the right bets on Friday and you can bet Saturday with house money. It sounds easy, right?
Future Stars Friday is a day for two-year-old horses to take center stage. But such inexperience yields plenty of questions. Which horses travel well? Which horses want to stretch out…and which ones are content around one turn? Will European horses find the Santa Anita turf to their liking? How does the class and quality of races in California or New York compare to that of those in Ireland, France or Great Britain? We’ll hope to answer these questions – and more – by putting together a winning ‘All Breeders’ Cup’ Pick 5 ticket.
Here's my strategy.
RACE 5 (5:00PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)
Speed seems to be the name of the game in this one, with three of the inside four posts occupied by horses that have done their best racing on the lead. #2 NO NAY METS is 3-for-3 in the US and has never not lead at any point of call in a domestic race. His stablemate, #1 CRIMSON ADVOCATE won a Group 2 race at Royal Ascot in gate-to-wire fashion, and #4 BIG EVS is one of the quickest starters you’ll ever see for a European-based horse. Sprinkle in #11 SLIDER, another confirmed speed, and they should be flying early. Half of these horses ship in from Europe with form that’s tough to compare with domestic runners, but all have been successful in racing’s highest levels. My strategy here is to go deep, play some defense, and try to survive until the next leg.
USING // #1 CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4/1), #2 NO NAY METS (4/1), #3 TIGER BELLE (15/1), #4 BIG EVS (3/1), #5 GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS (15/1), #6 STARLUST (20/1), #8 CHERRY BLOSSOM (12/1), #9 AMIDST WAVES (8/1), #12 COMMITTEE OF ONE (8/1)
RACE 6 (5:40PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLES // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
Like many tickets played worldwide, I’m marking #7 TAMARA a single here. It’s not that I think she’s the most talented two-year-old filly we’ve ever seen – there have been bunches – but it’s as much an indictment of the quality of the rest of the field. Besides #1 CANDIED, it’s virtually impossible for me to make a case for anyone else in this group. They’ve either not shown to be quick enough or are unproven at two-turn racing. TAMARA is bred to be a star, has aced both of her tests so far and I have no reason to believe she shouldn’t be one of the standout performers of this Breeders’ Cup.
USING // #7 TAMARA (4/5)
RACE 7 (6:20PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF // 1 MILE (TURF)
In a perfect scenario, that this point we’ll have gotten a fair price home in the Turf Sprint and Tamara home in the Juvenile Filles. In the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I’m leaning heavily on the European contingent.
Like other races, Europeans don’t have a standout record in this race, having won just 3-of-11 editions since 2012. The only caveat there is that Chad Brown won this division four times in that span (and a record five times overall) and is represented by just one filly - #12 HARD TO JUSTIFY – this year. Let’s see if Team Europe can take advantage. Each of the European horses I’ve targeted, #5 CONTENT, #6 PORTA FORTUNA and #9 CARLA’S WAY – has a victory in a Group 1/2/3 race, with PORTA FORTUNA victorious in the prestigious Group 1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket. Each is ridden by a world-class rider (Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy and James Doyle, respectively), and none are marooned in a tough outside post. The only American I’m using is #11 SHE FEELS PRETTY. I was blown away by her closing kick in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, and while the Santa Anita turf oval differs significantly from the Santa Anita course, I think she has the talent to explode home anywhere.
USING // #5 CONTENT (15/1), #6 PORTA FORTUNA (5/1), #9 CARLA’S WAY (6/1), #11 SHE FEELS PRETTY (4/1)
RACE 8 // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
I see this year’s Juvenile as a three-horse race with potential for a pace meltdown. Based on what we see on paper, we know that all three of Bob Baffert’s runners - #2 PRINCE OF MONACO, #3 WINE ME UP and #10 MUTH – want to be forward. We know that #8 GENERAL PARTNER, pacesetter in the G1 Champagne, prefers to run up front, and #9 FIERCENESS, a gate-to-wire debut winner, didn’t take kindly to dirt in his face in that same Champagne. I’m looking for horses that can sit back, just off the pace, and make a winning move. My ticket will have the 1-2 finishers from Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity - #6 LOCKED and #1 THE WINE STEWARD – as well as Baffert’s ‘best’ horse, #10 MUTH.
USING // #1 THE WINE STEWARD (8/1), #6 LOCKED (7/2), #10 MUTH (4/1)
Race 9 // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF // 1 MILE (TURF)
Friday’s Breeders’ Cup finale is the Juvenile Turf and I’m going ‘all in’ on the jockey trainer who has won this race five times in the last 12 years, Aidan O’Brien. Especially considering the next winningest trainer, Charlie Appleby, is not represented this year. O’Brien sends out three - #2 RIVER TIBER, #8 UNQUESTIONABLE and #12 MOUNTAIN BEAR – but my focus is on the inside two (if you wanted to also buy MOUNTAIN BEAR onto your ticket, I wouldn’t blame you). The only Americans that worry me are #7 AGATE ROAD, #5 MY BOY PRINCE (pace player) and #14 CARSON’S RUN (impossible draw?), so let’s hope we get here alive to the two O’Brien runners and we’ll see what happens.
USING // #2 RIVER TIBER (3/1), #8 UNQUESTIONABLE (4/1)
MY TICKET
To recap, my ticket is:
Race 5 // 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12
Race 6 // 7
Race 7 // 5, 6, 9, 11
Race 8 // 1, 6, 10
Race 9 // 2, 8
Ticket Cost // $108 for 50-cents
Other options are to ALL the first leg for $144, add in another horse in the last leg for $162 or pare down to just LOCKED and MUTH in the Juvenile for $72.
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