Frank Carulli: Woodbine Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, June 28, 2024

Bet a little, win a lot. That has been the theme of Woodbine’s Pick 4 the last two Fridays, spanning races 4 through 7. Only one favorite won and six of the eight winners paid $11 or more. The base 20-cent wager on the winning combinations returned $186 and $336, respectively. Here’s a look at this week’s Pick 4:

WO 4th race (2:54 p.m. EST) -- FORTYFIVESEVENTY returns from a 10-month layoff and tries the turf for the first time since 2022 in the day’s featured $40,000 optional claimer at 1-1/16 miles. But she won 2 of her last 3 starts at this level against fillies and mares, ran third in a crowded Woodbine Oaks last summer and has a strong turf race to summon as a 2-year-old, when she finished between two eventual stakes winners.  NOVEL is a longshot worth considering in her first start on the grass. She upset the 1-to-9 favorite in her seasonal debut, then raced far back in stakes company. Her sire, Frac Daddy, was Grade 3-placed going long on the turf. SWINGING MANDY could get brave on the lead with apprentice Sophia Vives carrying co-light weight. She led clear into the turn last out at 6F, then re-rallied into photo-finish view after the top pair passed by.

WO 5th race (3:26 p.m. EST) -- Since July of last year, the eight entrants are a combined 6-for-74 with three runner-up finishes. That bodes well for morning-line favorite ANSELMO, who just missed in the same spot after six months away. He made a 4-wide middle move to the lead, drifted wider in the stretch and got caught by the odds-on favorite. He is today’s solo play in the Pick 4 sequence.

WO 6th race (3:57 p.m. EST) -- ARASHI returns to the lawn for his second start as a 3-year-old. He won through disqualification to break his maiden on the turf, then ran second in the $250,000 Cup and Saucer Stakes behind My Boy Prince (5-9, $539k), a four-time stakes winner and Grade 1 runner-up. BRITISH ARTILLERY chased a torrid pace and tired to begin his season last year, but he is working smartly for his 2024 seasonal debut for a 21-percent layoff barn. He ‘loomed a threat’ in upper stretch in the Toronto Cup Stakes at one mile but couldn’t stay with the favorites, who ran 1-2.

WO 7th race (4:28 p.m. EST) -- Nine Ontario-sired maiden claimers are scheduled to go post-ward in the 6-1/2F finale. JOEYBONES is the top pick off a well-bet and useful debut. He takes a magnified class drop in a field that has combined for two seconds and four thirds in 60 starts, gets in light-weighted and gets Lasix. But with plenty of room to spare on the ticket, hit the ‘ALL’ button.

Suggested 20-Cent Ticket
WO 4th Race: 2, 3, 4
WO 5th Race: 8
WDB 6th Race: 3, 4
WDB 7th Race: ALL
Cost for 20-cent ticket: $10.80

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