Frank Carulli: Saratoga Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, August 30, 2024

The featured Grade 3 Saranac Stakes will lead off a 50-cent Pick 4 at Saratoga this Friday, Aug. 30. The six-horse field appears anyone’s race to win, but the Pick 4 sequence won’t get any easier with three Maiden Special Weight races to follow, all with the maximum 10 starters.

SAR 6th race (3:20 p.m. EST) --Five of the six entrants in the $175,000 Saranac arrive off long-distance victories at various venues. TAKE ME TO CHURCH, a three-peat winner in Ireland before taking on graded stakes foes in his last two starts, makes his U.S. debut for trainer Brad Cox. His uncoupled stablemate, WEST HOLLYWOOD adapted well to a change of tactics and was ‘patiently handled’ before rallying to win an allowance at this distance for a 27-percent ‘repeat’ barn.  THE BIG TORPEDO continues to impress, winning from on and off the pace against quality fields of New York breds in his last two starts. The wins came on the heels of a near 22-1 upset in open stakes company. He got beat a half-length in the $125,000 Woodhaven but finished 4-1/2 lengths ahead of Carson’s Run, winner of the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational earlier this month. He is our top choice in here.

SAR 7th race (3:54 p.m. EST) -- CHICAZTECA rallied for third in a well-bet debut at Finger Lakes but benefitted when the favorite bolted on a commanding lead. She has a race under her belt, which none of the others have, but look elsewhere, nonetheless. VERY COSMOPOLITAN will try to add her name to the list of productive 2-year-olds by her sire, Complexity, whose first crop of runners are 15-56 overall and 6-28 in their debut. Her dam, Violent Turbulence, won the $200,000 Parx Dash in her first stakes attempt. Trainer Jorge Abreu is 15/5-4-1 with debut 2-year-olds since August 2022. Three of the winners were in MSW company at Saratoga, so use both BLUE EYED SCOUT and CAMPAIGN CHAMPAGNE on the ticket. DIVINE WORKS ships in with a series of flashy workouts at Laurel Park for trainer Michael Trombetta, who stable is enjoying a 56/9-11-8 August competing at various tracks.
 
SAR 8th race (4:29 p.m. EST) -- NATIONAL ARCHIVE has the bloodlines to beat the boys in her 1-1/16-mile turf debut for the high-percentage tandem of trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Flavien Prat. Her sire, Constitution, ranks third in North America in 2024 in progeny turf earnings, and her dam, Lyn B, ran second at this distance in the only start of her career. DIGNIFIED RESPONSE is a longshot worth considering. His dam was 18/5-2-4 on turf with $195k in earnings. His trainer, George Weaver, is 0-9 with first-out 2-year-olds on the turf this year, but he was 5-14 last year at an average win mutuel of $16.60. TRINITY RIVER’S connections are 4-for-11 at the current meet and his sire, Air Force Blue, produced the likes of Grade 2 turf winner Air Force Red (5-19, $439k on turf) and Grade 2-placed grass router Astronomer.

SAR 9th race (5:04 p.m. EST) -- OFF SCRIPT, roughed up at the start in her debut, ‘kicked on belatedly’ in a field of mostly first-time starters to finish second to 5-2 second choice Accelerating, who came back with an easy stakes win at odds-on. MOONLIGHT GAL gets a spot on the ticket off a fastest-of-182 bullet workout at Saratoga August 11. VALTELLINA, by the aforementioned hot first-out sire Complexity, is another price play worth using. EARLY ON, under urging in the back of the pack, floated 6-wide in the stretch but got up for third, now enters the always dangerous Saffie Joseph Jr. barn.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
SAR 6th Race: 1, 3, 5
SAR 7th Race: 4, 5, 10
SAR 8th Race: 2, 3, 5
SAR 9th Race: 1, 5, 7, 10
Cost: $54

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