Frank Carulli: Santa Anita Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, September 27, 2024

The opening day crowd at Santa Anita’s Fall Meet the Friday will be able to see for miles on end. All four races in the Late Pick 4 sequence – two on turf and two on the main track – will be contested at that distance. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $1 play and a $36 ticket:

SA 6th race (6:30 p.m. EST) -- PURE MADNESS will be a solo play on a lot of tickets in this Cal-bred allowance. He just won under the same condition to go 2-for-2 on turf, sandwiched around a stakes-place showing on the Del Mar dirt at 7F.  He couldn’t gain on 6-1 upsetter Curlin’s Chaos (3-10, $258k), who was put on the lead for the first time in his career and improved his top Beyer speed figure from 77 to 96. The drawback is that eight other runners exited that stakes race, with only one third-place effort to show for it. His likely target today will be rail-sitter PURE CHAOS, a consistent and well-bet sprinter who improved in his second start off a 3-plus month layoff when he started the year with blinkers on.

SA 7th race (7:00 p.m. EST) -- Take a cue from Pure Madness in the sixth race when assessing the aforementioned CURLIN’S CHAOS is this $80,000 optional claiming race on the turf. He can make maximum use of his speed if the same tactics are likely employed, but he can come from off the pace, if necessary, as his two previous one-mile turf victories prove. No matter, UNCLE HAPPY is the top pick in here. He shipped to Del Mar, coming off a repeat victory in a double key turf allowance at Lone Star Park and didn’t disappoint, shaking off the co-favorite on the second turn, only to get caught by the early trailer. He figures up close throughout on the cutback in distance. PROMISSIO, a two-time winner on the Santa Anita lawn this year, rallied for three thirds in his last four starts. He finished a length behind UNCLE HAPPY after he was ‘ping-ponged’ at the start and ran up on heels on the backstretch while 3-wide. His fate could hinge on the pace, but at least the price is right to use him on the ticket.

SA 8th race (7:30 p.m. EST) -- FLY THE SKY has had his share of trouble lines, but he gets class relief, changes jockeys and shows a flashy :47.2 workout since his last start as he seeks his first win on dirt. MONTANA appears an all-or-nothing type play, running for cheapest tag of his career in this $10,000 claimer. He lost by a combined 40 lengths in his last two starts, but had three wins and two near misses in his prior eight races at Santa Anita, all but one at one mile. VANZZY, stakes-placed on conventional dirt early in his career, was unlucky in his second start on the surface since the 2020 Grade 3 Withers. He was 3- to 5-wide most of the way after stumbling badly at the start but managed to finish second behind the front-end winner.  

SA 9th race (8:00 p.m. EST) -- I’LLHAVEANOTHERWON returns home after a useful turf-to-dirt debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where he spotted the field a couple lengths at the break, appeared to dislike the slop while trailing to the far turn, but showed some willingness thereafter. His dam, Doctor Carina, was 22/5-3-4 on the grass and a $105k earner. WASTING ACES continues to improve and appears sitting on a maiden victory. He was unhurried for a half-mile last out, advanced into the turn, waited for a seam to run through and got up 5-wide to finish third. He can turn the tables on morning-line favorite BLAME THE CLASSIC, who got the jump and finished second at 1-1/16 miles.

Suggested $1 Ticket
SA 6th Race: 1, 5
SA 7th Race: 5, 6, 7
SA 8th Race: 3, 6, 7
SA 9th Race: 7, 9
Cost: $36

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