Frank Carulli: Breeders' Cup Friday Pick 4 Analysis

The future is now for aspiring 2-year-old thoroughbred champions. Del Mar will host five Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup races Friday, including long distance tests on the dirt and turf, respectively, for the colts and fillies. The last four races on the card make up the 50-cent Late Pick 4 that shapes up this way:  
 
DMR 7th race (6:25 p.m. EST) -- The road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies championship has gone through the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in New York. Four of the last six Juvenile Fillies winners and 15 all-time charted the same path. SCOTTISH LASSIE is a prime candidate to continue the trend. She bounced back from a debut loss to QUICKICK and SNOWYTE with a 9-length Frizette victory. She was put to a drive at the quarter pole, took over at the top of the stretch and widened to win at one mile. More importantly, the race fractions and final time were nearly identical to Chancer McPatrick in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes for the boys, the same Chancer McPatrick who is the 3-1 second choice in today’s BC Juvenile. That being said, don’t sleep on QUICKICK at 10-1 on the morning line. She rallied for second in the Grade 1 Alcibiades and could sit a dream trip in a speed-laden field. Her dam, Graeme Six, produced two Grade 3-winning routers.

DMR 8th race (7:05 p.m. EST) -- Trainer Aidan O’Brien enters today tied as the second-leading Breeders’ Cup trainer of all-time with 18 wins, but he’s 1-for-17 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. He has two entrants in the one-mile test, including unbeaten LAKE VICTORIA, who won back-to-back Group 1 races overseas to improve to 4-for-4. The 8-to-5 morning-line favorite has speed and the rail in her first try beyond 7F. Her sire, Frankel, was 12-for-12 in stakes races, a two-time European Horse of the Year and two-time leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland. Frankel’s offspring have a penchant to improve the farther they run, as evidenced by winners of the St. Leger, Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, Epsom Oaks, Japanese Oaks and Australia Oaks, to name a few Classic races. LAKE VICTORIA is today’s Pick 4 solo play.  

DMR 9th race (7:45 p.m. EST) -- EAST AVENUE validated a runaway debut victory at Ellis Park with a smashing win on the stretch-out in distance in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He raced well in-hand on the backstretch, edged away on the turn while his three closest pursuers were under a drive and was geared down late. He is today’s Best Bet, but include longshot SHIN BELIEVE, an $800,000 sales buy and easy debut winner in Japan in a 15-horse field, for added value.

DMR 10th race (8:25 p.m. EST) -- European-based runners won 12 of the first 16 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – and there are plenty of them in this one-mile renewal. AL QUDRA is the top pick to add another G-1 victory to his resume and enhance trainer Charles Appleby’s scintillating Cup record. SEAGULLS ELEVEN is a longshot to consider as he kept quality company while finishing in the money in 2 of 3 graded stakes in Europe at 7F. But with room to spare on the Pick 4 ticket and three American-based runners with graded stakes victories, hit the ‘ALL’ button in the final leg of the sequence.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket

DMR 7th Race: 5, 10
DMR 8th Race: 1
DMR 9th Race: 1, 8
DMR 10th Race: ALL

Total: $28 for 50 cents

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