The group at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet is pretty fired up for Saturday’s races. So much so, in fact, that they’ve dropped a $25,000 Hit & Split (!!) on the All-Stakes Late Pick 5 from the Fair Grounds, which kicks off in Race 10, at 5:21PM ET.
Fair Grounds ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ is one of the most popular in the nation, with the Risen Star being the first of the key ‘second-to-last’ preps on the path. It will be followed by the Rebel (Feb 24), Fountain of Youth (Mar 2), San Felipe (Mar 2), Gotham (Mar 2) and Tampa Derby (Mar 9). Simply put, it’s getting real and it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
And in the Risen Star, the ‘contenders’ seem to be out in force. Catching Freedom, Sierra Leone, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Resilience and Track Phanom are all listed as individual betting interests in this weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager, indicating that a consensus thinks they have what it takes to be successful on the First Saturday in May.
As a bettor, though, my focus on Saturday is going to be that huge $25,000 Hit & Split on the All-Stakes Late Pick 5. After all, what better way to play than to target a pool where you get bonus money – and potentially a lot of bonus money – if you’re right?
Here’s my ticket:
Race 10 (5:21PM ET) – Al Stall Memorial Stakes (1 1/16 Miles – Turf)
The sequence starts with the $100K Al Stall Memorial, and five of the 13 fillies and mares entered here exit the Marie Krantz Memorial on January 20. The winner of that race, #3 CREATIVE CAIRO (7/2), was 5/1 that day and makes sense here at a fair price. #5 SPIRIT AND GLORY (3/1) is back from California and gets Flavien Prat to ride, which is always an upgrade on the lawn. Let’s go light here and hope those two get us through the opener.
Race 11 (5:50PM ET) – G3 Mineshaft Stakes (1 1/16 Miles – Dirt)
With Saudi Crown around the world targeting the $20M Saudi Cup, this year’s Mineshaft appears more open than last month’s Louisiana Stakes that he won in a canter. I’m targeting three horses for our ticket. #1 RED ROUTE ONE (5/1) was respectable when 2nd in the Louisiana and his record while racing on Lasix is impressive. I like the inside draw and he stacks up well with this group. I want to give #9 SMILE HAPPY (5/1) another chance. He was terrible in the Louisiana, but with that tightener under his belt, I think he’s positioned to do better this go around the oval. And finally, I’ve had a love/hate relationship with #3 BEST ACTOR (3/1) – how did he lose the Indiana Derby(?!?!) – but he’s back in form for Brad Cox and that’s always a dangerous angle.
Race 12 (6:19PM ET) – G3 Fair Grounds Stakes (1 1/8 Miles – Turf)
In last month’s Colonel E.R. Bradley, the race was over from the get go as #3 STRONG QUALITY (3/1) proceeded to take the field on a 1 1/16-mile chase around the merry go round on the front end. There are more horses entered this time (12 entries vs just 6 last out), but it doesn’t appear that many of the new shooters are major pace players. STRONG QUALITY should once again find himself in good position throughout from an inside post. #10 BEATBOX (7/2) has been wholly unlucky to have lost four close finishes in a row, but worthwhile that he was gaining on STRONG QUALITY last out, beaten just a head. And this race is slightly longer. Finally #11 EL GIGANTE (8/1) drew miserably, but was very good in the Woodchopper on December 30, outrunning the highly-regarded Northern Invader. His record with Lasix is great (4 for his last 4) and is a nice price in case they don’t let STRONG QUALITY walk up front.
Race 13 (6:48PM ET) – G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (1 1/16 Miles – Dirt)
Candidly, races like this feel like the greatest challenge in handicapping, generally for the worst return. We’ve got a seven-horse field and five of the seven are 5/1 or lower on the ML. It’s wide open…and there’s minimal value. On the bright side, this race has produced a plethora of recent Kentucky Oaks winners, including four since 2014 – Untapable (2014), Monomoy Girl (2018), Serengeti Empress (2019) and Pretty Mischievous (2023). I’m going to throw a blanket over as many horses as I can afford and use #1 TARIFA (5/1), #4 INTRICATE (3/1), #5 ALPINE PRINCESS (7/2), #6 V V’S DREAM (5/2) and #7 WEST OMAHA (9/2).
Race 14 (7:17PM ET) – G2 Risen Star (1 1/8 Miles – Dirt)
The ‘get out’ race for Saturday is the day’s premier event, the Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star. #11 TRACK PHANTOM (7/2) has swept his way through the first two legs of Fair Grounds ‘Road to the Triple Crown,’ the Gun Runner and Lecomte. The issue facing handicappers is simple. He swept through those races with minimal competition and great pace setups. On paper, his frontrunning style doesn’t appear so advantageous, and Post #11 puts him at risk for a wide trip. #4 SIERRA LEONE (4/1) has the look of a ‘wiseguy’ play. He ran into the teeth of a potential speed bias in the G2 Remsen before a tenacious Dornoch repelled his winning bid. I like his potential for a fair pace setup, he’s proven at the distance, but he’ll need to overcome a 2 1/2-month layoff. TRACK PHANTOM’S stablemate #7 HALL OF FAME (6/1) was phenomenal in breaking his maiden on January 20 (Lecomte Day), but I’d tread just a little carefully there. He’s a horse to include, but….he loses his rider from that day (Rosario), he’s worked only once since that race and he’s off Lasix, which he used that day. Might be tough. #3 HONOR MARIE (6/1 ) would be a great story with fresh trainer Whit Beckham on the scene. The horse is a perfect 2-for-2 on dry tracks, but will need to overcome a nearly 3-month layoff.
My Ticket:
Race 10: 3, 5
Race 11: 1, 3
Race 12: 3, 10, 11
Race 13: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 14: 3, 4, 7, 11
Ticket Cost (50-cent base): $120
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