Bettors were handed a gift on Friday as nobody solved the Late Pick 5 puzzle at Belmont at the Big A, triggering an astonishing $323,211 carryover. There is also a $39,020 ‘leftover’ in the Pick 6 for those playing that game.
Bettors tackling the Late Pick 5 on Saturday will note some ‘musical chairs’ with jockeys, as many top New York regulars opted to ride at Churchill (Irad and Jose Ortiz, Luis Saez, Joel Rosario, Tyler Gaffalione) or Woodbine (John Velazquez, Frankie Dettori) on Saturday. That should open up some opportunities for guys like Dylan Davis, Manny Franco, Eric Cancel and Jose Lezcano to shine.
Let’s take a stab at putting together a ticket using some horses that jumped out at me for Saturday:
Race 7 (3:40PM ET) – Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16M; Turf)
Main Ticket: 2-Davy Crockett, #4-Valuation Metric, #5-Barricade
Backups: 8-Don’t Ghost Me, 9-Well Suited
#2 DAVY CROCKETT (5/2) AND #4 VALUATION METRIC (7/2) exit the same August 17 Saratoga MSW and they were separated by less than a length that day, with DAVY CROCKETT finishing 2nd and VALUATION METRIC checking in 4th in a frantic finish. #5 BARRICADE got a decent amount of experience out of his debut at Saratoga on July 27 and I project he’ll move forward with that one under his belt.
First-time starter #8 DON’T GHOST ME (6/1) and first-time turfer #9 WELL SUITED (12/1) are toteboard horses for me. Let’s take advantage of the added benefit of this being the opening leg of the sequence and use them if they’re taking money in the Win pool and will pays.
Race 8 (4:11PM ET) – Allowance (6F; Turf)
Main Ticket: 7-In Our Time, 8-Lamorna, 9-Leslie’s Humor
Backups: None
#7 IN OUR TIME (5/2) drew a great post for her frontrunning style. There is some speed inside of her – posts 1, 2 and 6 want to be forward – but I don’t think anyone has the early foot to match her. The biggest risk could be #9 LESLIE’S HUMOR (5/1), if Dylan Davis can paint himself right off IN OUR TIME’s flank. She won the only turf effort and a solid try in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga on August 15 indicates she’s in strong form. #8 LAMORNA probably intrigues me more than she should. I think this distance hits this deeeep closer right between the eyes and she will make up a lot of ground from start to finish here.
Race 9 (4:42PM ET) – Claiming (6 F; Dirt)
Main Ticket: 6-Briterdayzahead
Backups: None
Despite the appeal of getting ‘two-for-one’ with the Ilkay Kantarmaci coupled entry, I’m putting my eggs in the basket of #6 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (2/1). He looks like a speed standout in a race lacking much early juice. He is drawn outside the chief rival, #1 MISTER J T (3/1), and thinking he’s dangerous just back off the claim by Tom Amoss.
Race 10 (5:17PM ET) – G3 Jockey Club Oaks (1 3/8 M; Turf)
Main Ticket: 9-Mixologist, 7-Lady Mary, 4-Beautiful Love
Backups: 5-Justdeny, 10-Macanga
We’re without a standout here and the two international runners don’t bring much winning form. Germany’s #7 LADY MARY (7/2) is just 1-for-8, while Godolphin’s British/UAE-shipper, #4 BEAUTIFUL LOVE (4/1), is 2-for-7 and was just 6th in the G2 Lake Placid. This race has no real pace, and #10 MACANGA (8/1), an all-or-nothing-type, resonates on paper. This trip will push her but this field is infinitely softer than the one she lined up against in the G2 Saratoga Oaks last month. #9 MIXOLOGIST (9/2) is cursed with the wrong running style, but appears capable of overcoming a soft pace. The only horse in here who has won at this distance? #5 JUSTDENY (8/1). That’s got to count for something. She broke her maiden going this trip, over this course, in June.
Race 11 (5:49PM ET) – Maiden Claiming (1 1/16M; Turf)
Main Ticket: 1-Trulli Warrior, 7-Out of Favor
Backups: None
There are no ‘great shakes’ in this maiden claiming ‘get out’ turf contest, but class droppers from the Pletcher barn (#1 TRULLI WARRIOR – 7/2) and Brown barn (#7 OUT OF FAVOR – 5/2) appear poised to make some noise dropping from MSW to MCL company. They say that’s the biggest class drop in racing and those horses are probably slotting in where they fit after taking on tougher competition. If looking elsewhere, worth noting that Clement has two entered in here and he goes with the regular rider (Dylan Davis) on #3 FLICKER (5/1) over #5 POKER JOKER (6/1), despite the latter showing a more versatile style.
Good luck on Saturday!
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