With a special Fat Tuesday card slated at New Orleans' Fair Grounds, here are the top plays for the afternoon action. Xpressbet.com is home to my best bets each racing day inside the member's section, along with fellow handicapper Frank Carulli.
Fair Grounds - Race 6
#2 Baltimore Heart: Been waiting for this guy to get a fair chance on the turf with a pedigree that tilts that way, and I'm hoping it comes today. He didn't care for the main track when rained off in the debut run, and he blew the break last out before rushing all the way up for an aggressive press before fading. Could be interesting pace at a price -- like that Loveberry is back up.
#10 Linzer: He'll need scratch help to go, but he is obviously tough with this kind after getting DQ'ed here last month after finding the post first. He's fast but can rate. Lots to like at a probably unappealing price if he goes.
#1 Debt Paid: Price gets shorter this time around, but he woke up a bit when getting this trip for the first time last out. Cozy trip from the fence?
Race Summary: Baltimore Heart did a good bit of running to get up near the pace after a sloppy break last out, and that gives me enough interest in finding out if he can be a more impactful forward player with a clean start -- not sure he's really exposed yet.
Fair Grounds - Race 8
#3 Ova Charged: She should be able to get a perfect run of things while placed wherever her rider sees fit. Think this race might come down to who gets the best trip with a well-timed move, as most of the dangerous players in here have similar styles.
#7 Oeuvre: Probably wasting my time playing against her given how much she loves this course, but I just wonder if there might be someone along to get the last jump on her. Tons of respect for this Illinois-bred.
#5 Brandon'smylawyer: She has some upside at a midrange price while getting back on the turf, as she was stakes placed on the lawn in Southern California. It's way back in her form, but there are some really nice press-and-finish efforts that might leave her in the mix turning for home if she can tap the brakes just a touch.
Race Summary: Ova Charged, Oeuvre and Brandon'smylawyer all have a similar forward style and at least a mild rating ability, but Ova Charged might offer a fair enough price while getting an open-company test on the turf.
Fair Grounds - Race 9
#1 Osterville Public: She needs way better than she has shown in the first two starts, but she hinted at a touch of positional pace last out, and that might be enough to keep her in the frame early in a race without a ton of speed. Interesting if the race flow falls right.
#3 Churning Berni: Only a few very mild finishing efforts on the page so far, but she draws a bit better to maybe avoid the wide kind of trip that hurt her in the last two. A touch better than she looks at first glance?
#2 Pretty Ana: She should be in a dreamy spot tracking what pace there is, and any reasonable upside would keep her in the mix. Would imagine the price will be at least a little bit better today, too?
Race Summary: Osterville Public isn't meeting much pace, and her most recent effort was just a brief chase and fade. Maybe she finds the front end and digs in better today? Wouldn't mind being alive to just the top two on some reach tickets.
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