Race 1: Sire Stakes Saturday kicks off with a price, as 2 CAJUN PRIME cuts back, drops from an MSW, and figures to get a hot pace to stalk as well. Part of the speed brigade comes from 6 SATURN’S GHOST, who chased wild splits on debut and tired, but should move forward off that. Not sold on 8 BELLA MENDY, an MSW dropper who can improve, but Barboza just 9% on turf, there are some mixed signals here.
SELECTIONS: 2-6-8-11
Race 2: Not trying to beat 3 NELIDA in her comeback on the class drop, since her Tapeta races earlier in the year are best, and she seems spotted to score for D’Angelo. The main (only?) danger is 4 DARLING DARLEY, as she ran well on Tapeta when 2nd two-back, and is next up if the chalk isn’t ready off the shelf. The gap to the rest, including 7 NAA DUDETTE, seems a big one, but she can get a piece.
SELECTIONS: 3-4-7-1
Race 3: The class drop that stakes winner 4 FREEDOM PRINCIPLE gets today makes him tough, as he’s been facing tons better, while holding his own, and note he adds Lasix too. Getting away from stakes foes won’t hurt 3 SALVATTORE PRINCE either, but he’s got 5 lengths to make up on the pick when they met two-back, which might be too much to overcome. Don’t sleep on 2 CUBAN THUNDER, who was 2nd to ‘Prince on Tapeta in December, and may be primed in his first start since April for Delgado.
SELECTIONS: 4-3-2-6
Race 4: Stabbing with newcomer 3 DASH OF LEMON, who has done no running in four starts, but is now with Antonucci, drops stiffly, and adds Lasix too. Both 4 SHINING SKYE and 6 DARLING LUNA are more likely off their turf form, albeit at underlaid odds, with little margin for error.
SELECTIONS: 3-4-6-1
Race 5: It’s Best Bet time with 7 WICKLOW GAL, who looks like the controlling speed, has won two in a row at this level, and has no questions to answer either. Conversely, while you get three wins in a row between 5 SHE FLED THE SCENE and 4 CARBERNET, the former broke a long losing streak last time, while the latter is rising in class off a slow win, so both streaks seem in jeopardy.
SELECTIONS: 7-5-4-2
Race 6: The Desert Vixen for the 2yo fillies has an overwhelming favorite in 1 WIN N YOUR IN, and while the rail might complicate things, anything close to her easy win in the open Sharp Susan would beat this field comfortably. A nice outside attack post gives some hope to 6 WIGGLE AN' WINE, at least for 2nd, a spot she finished when behind the chalk in the Sharp Susan, though making up the 4 1/2 lengths is another story. That was some debut from 3 R MORNING BREW, who dominated state breds for Saffie and Zayas in the slop, but steps, and that win won’t scare ‘Win
SELECTIONS: 1-6-3-5
Race 7: Running in a stakes on debut isn’t ideal, but 4 RAFID ran a credible 4th, so now on the drop, with that experience, he can break through here. They’ll bet 11 BIG SHOULDERS hard off a 3rd behind two good ones on debut, in what was a very fast race for the level, though this wide draw tempers the enthusiasm some. Tab the tote on the Spatz firster 10 BIG MONARCH, as he’s worked well for a 16% debut barn.
SELECTIONS: 4-11-10-3
Race 8: It’s Longshot time in the Mambo Meister with 1 GRAND DAVID, who ran huge chasing wild splits early behind Fly the W when 2nd at giant odds last time, drew well, and can get first run off a ton of speed. Stalkers 5 AWESOME BOURBON and 6 LORENZ will also be flattered by the race flow, and the former can improve 2nd-off a long layoff and off-the-claim for D’Angelo (19%), while the latter could finally break through on the local turf with blinkers.
SELECTIONS: 1-5-6-4
Race 9: A solid 2nd against winners gives 7 ALL CLASS a tepid edge over 8 ALESS QUEEN, who blasted maidens but steps up, though neither are locks in a deep race. Expecting better from 6 AMY THE BUTCHER, who disappointed when going to Saffie last time, but can rebound.
SELECTIONS: 7-8-6-2
Race 10: The Dr. Fager for 2yo marks the long-awaited return of 8 RATED BY MERIT, who was the fastest 2yo in the country when he won his debut by 9 � lengths on 7/13, and that 8/21 bullet says he’s lost nothing off his fastball, and is ready for an encore. It was good to see 2 NEOEQUOS put it together in his second start after tossing the jock in debut, and he seem the biggest threat to ‘Merit, but he must improve multiple lengths, or hope the chalk regresses, to get there first. Look for
4 CANDYCRUMBS to run on late for a piece off a state-bred stakes win in Virginia.
SELECTIONS: 8-2-4-1
Race 11: The finale looks between 5 REMERTON and 6 NOBLE TIGER, who were 4th and 2nd when they met last time, but the former is now OTC for Delgado (19%), which says he can turn the tables. The MSW drop for 8 HIGH PRINCE will help, though he did no running at 34-1 on debut.
SELECTIONS: 5-6-8-9
Best Bet: R5: #7 Wicklow Gal (9-5)
* Looks like controlling speed on paper
* Two easy wins in a row at 10k level
* Both rivals (#4 and #5) may regress
Longshot: R8: #1 Grand David (12-1)
* Huge first-run 2nd behind ‘Fly on turf
* Stalker can sit just off a ton of speed
* Fits on paper in wide-open ‘Meister
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