Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Breeders Crown Early Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, October 26, 2024

The Meadowlands finishes Breeders Crown weekend with a 14-race card. The Breeders Crown Championships begin in Race 4 and continue through Race 11. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 with a $100,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 6. The sequence has a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

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Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:25 PM EST)

5-Caviart Belle (5-1)-Looking to fade the 2-1 program chalk My Girl EJ and hope to start off with a solid price. Raced inside in the 1st start on Lasix last and came a close 4th. The wrapper comes off tonight and the Nancy Takter trainee could stalk  and catch the leaders. Did pace the 2nd half in a snappy in 53.4 and Yannick Gingras should be in striking range to take a picture. Does good work at M1 (11-6-3-0) and could be sitting on a big try.
7-Rocket Deo (3-1)-The Brett Pelling filly also tries Lasix for the 2nd time and accomplished what was needed starting from post 8 last week. This gal has 3 wins in 7 starts at M1 and could benefit from an expected hot pace.
8-It's A Love Thing (7/2)-The Dave Menary entry raced well in the Elim coming 3rd a neck back. Was used early in the mile and hung in there. Has a win and a close 3rd place finish in 2 Big M races. The post helps the price and best to respect. Menary and James MacDonlad have teamed up for big wins in the past.

Race 7 (8:50 PM EST)

2-Daiquiri Hanover (6-1)-Normally my plan would be to play against a winner which was a huge price that came from off the pace to win. The Ake Svanstedt pupil went off as a big overlay in my book even starting from post 9 and paid off at 79-1. This is a sharp outfit who probably wanted to come home hard and they happened to win. This was the race they were aiming for and hasn't been worse than 2nd in 4 Big M races, taking 2 pictures. Could double up and should be in play early on.
6-TCI (5/2)-The Ron Burke trainee is a big-time player and makes its 2nd start on Lasix. Won easily last week and may not get the same respect this time. That said, the race will need to go through the son of Cantab Hall.

Race 8 (9:15 PM EST)

6-Bythemissal (6/5)-The Burke standout has made only 6 starts this year and looks like he is in prime form to collect another big check. Left from post 8 last week, took control early on and didn't look back. There is speed on the rail but if Gingras wants the point it will be his. Doesn't have to lead every step of the way to win and with a smooth trip should be tough to beat.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

5-Winner's Bet (6/5)-Winner of 3 straight but hasn't raced since 10-4 and will bank on Nancy Takter that the 4-year-old will be dialed on high. Has won 7 of 13 at M1 and regular pilot Dexter Dunn will be at the controls. The plan could be to go gate to wire, and usually wins if 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch.  
11-Oh Well (10-1)-This Marcus Melander pupil won't be on many tickets and needs to a few breaks and a huge try to win from the 2nd tier. Has posted only 1 win this year but does well at M1 (20-6-9-3). There is gate speed on the inside and Todd McCarthy is no slouch. Could be in striking range down the lane and if the chalk gets roughed up the 4-year-old knows how to close in a hurry.

$2.00 Early Pick 4

5,7,8/2,6/6/5,11
Total Bet=$24

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