Super Saturday.
Those two words were made for Saturday, August 6.
And let’s face it, there’s good reason. Just look at the weekend slate that awaits racing fans and handicappers:
• Whitney Day at Saratoga
• Pick 6 Mandatory Payout at Del Mar
• Hambletonian Day at The Meadowlands
• Florida Sire Stakes Series Kicks off at Gulfstream
Nestled amongst all those races, and holding its own on the judges’ scorecards, is the Grade 3, $500,000 West Virginia Derby Day card at Mountaineer.
While it doesn’t have the star power of the Whitney, or the ‘Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In’ designation of Del Mar’s Clement Hirsch, it packs a punch that savvy horseplayers don’t often overlook. Seven stakes races will do that.
This year’s ‘Derby’ attracted a field of seven and features the winners of the G2 Fountain of Youth (Simplification), G3 Peter Pan (We the People) and Texas Derby (King Ottoman). Sprinkle in Belmont third-place finisher, Skippylongstocking, Monmouth’s Pegasus winner, Home Brew, and Jerome victor, Courvoisier, and this is a race worth betting.
Here’s my stab at the Late Pick 5, which covers Races 5 – 9. For those inclined, drop off the first leg and play it as a Pick 4.
RACE 5 (3:55PM ET) // $75,000 WV SENATE PRESIDENTS CUP // 1M70Y (TURF)
The first thing you’ll notice when you crack open your WV Derby Day PPs is the support of barns like Brad Cox, Steve Asmussen, Mike Maker and Joe Sharp. Their horses are prevalent across the card, and that is very true for this turf route for fillies and mares. I think you can get this leg using two - #8 ADVENTURING (6/5) and #4 LASHARA (3/1). We will do some price hunting later, but ADVENTURING is a two-time stakes winner for Cox that has already won on turf, dirt and synthetic. Hard to imagine she won’t relish a cut in class here. If she falters, LASHARA is the play. She nearly won a tough allowance at Belmont on July 10 and should be moving well late. Want a bomb? #12 KITTEN BY THE SEA (30/1) is less than a year removed from a pair of frontrunning scores at Saratoga that would probably beat this field.
USE: #4 LASHARA (3/1), #8 ADVENTURING (6/5)
CONSIDER: #5 VEZPA (10/1), #9 LOOPY (10/1)
RACE 6 (4:25PM ET) // $75,000 SENATOR ROBERT BYRD MEMORIAL // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint fourth-place finisher, #7 SPECIAL RESERVE (6/5), should have this field for lunch, right? Maybe? He wheels back on short rest after a tremendously disappointing effort at 2/1 in the DeFrancis Dash at Laurel – 7th beaten 8-lengths – and the quick turnaround and a trip to the ‘Mountain’ for a $75,000 stakes race doesn’t instill confidence. Especially with the razor sharp #5 WILLISTON WAY (5/1) drawn two posts to his inside. ‘WAY’ is 4-for-5 at Mountaineer and just earned a 91 Beyer for an allowance win here on July 10. Their speed duel could set up for #1 MACRON (7/5), who is in for Steve Asmussen off a huge effort in the Iowa Sprint Stakes last month. Any of the three can win, and don’t be quick to dismiss the local horse.
USE: #1 MACRON, #7 SPECIAL RESERVE
CONSIDER: #5 WILLISTON WAY
RACE 7 (4:55PM ET) // GRADE 3 WV GOVERNOR’S STAKES // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
It has been reported by Marcus Hersch of the DRF that #2 MR. WIRELESS (9/2) will scratch from this spot.
That leaves a field of nine and plenty of options. Favoritism is likely to go to #4 FULSOME (3/1) for Brad Cox and Paco Lopez. He is a 7-time winner, including multiple Grade 3’s, but his late-running style will probably give his backers worry at the head of the lane. Todd Pletcher’s #9 PROMISE KEEPER (5/1) faced the likes of Olympiad and Plainsman over the winter and got some time off after his last start. #8 DERBY HOUSE (5/1) has become a monster at Parx, but will need to travel that form elsewhere, while #5 SILVER PROSPECTOR (4/1) has won just once in his last ten races, but that happened to be the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star. Add in #10 ENDORSED (10/1) – fourth in the Pegasus World Cup – from a tough outside draw and this race can go any direction.
My inclination is to trust that Pletcher has PROMISE KEEPER in good form and is the likeliest winner, but any of the five I listed above would not be a surprise.
USE: #4 FULSOME, #5 SILVER PROSPECTOR, #9 PROMISE KEEPER, #10 ENDORSED
CONSIDER: #8 DERBY HOUSE
RACE 8 (5:35PM ET) // GRADE 3 WEST VIRGINIA DERBY // 1 1/8 MILES (DIRT)
What a fun race. The angles you can use to approach this with are limitless, but I do have some expectations. #6 WE THE PEOPLE (2/1) should go to the lead. But he won’t be alone. #2 SIMLIFICATION (5/2) and #3 HOME BREW (3/1) should be right there. And ultimately, I think the winner of this race comes from that second pack of horses. Mountaineer is a traditionally ‘speed favoring’ dirt track and it is hard to envision the winner of this race coming from far out of it. HOME BREW ran a phenomenal race in Monmouth’s Pegasus, and you have to think he would have had a shot at the glory in the Haskell if Brad Cox wasn’t loaded with Cyberknife going in. And similarly, hard to fault that barn for running the more proven commodity, Tawny Port, in the Jim Dandy. So HOME BREW ends up here with a 4-for-6 lifetime mark. The fact that Paco Lopez, who rode him at Monmouth, ships in to ride is a big plus.
SIMPLIFICATION (pictured above) is a tougher puzzle for me. Yes, he won the Fountain of Youth. Yes, he was third in the Florida Derby and fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he adds Lasix for the first time (you don’t get to type that much anymore). But he flopped in the Preakness – 6th of 9 – and he has yet to win away from the Gulfstream dirt. I think the inside post will help him a lot here – especially with the hopeless closer #1 JR’S GIFT (30/1) to his inside – so he should save ground just in behind the speed.
#4 KING OTTOMAN (6/1) probably wants to come from too far out of it and #7 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (5/1) seems like a grinder more content to pick up pieces than to smile for the camera. Neither would be a shock…but both would cause my tickets to hit the floor.
USE: #2 SIMPLIFICATION, #3 HOME BREW
CONSIDER: #6 WE THE PEOPLE
RACE 9 (6:00PM ET) // ALLOWANCE // 7 FURLONGS (TURF)
For the sake of this writeup, let’s assume that this race stays on the turf.
#8 NEW YEAR SURPRISE (7/2) is probably the most talented of these, but he’s not without significant warts. First, he’s wheeling back on just six-days rest. And that’s six days after he went 1 3/8-miles on the Mountaineer turf. He moved far too soon that day (off a 4 1/2 month layoff) and was caught gasping for air at the sixteenth pole. If he’s ready for this challenge he’s probably the winner. But do you trust singling a jockey that is 1-for-46 at the meet? I can’t.
#2 PRINCE AMADEUS (5/1) is the inside-drawn speed that they should have to catch. His last two races on the Mountaineer turf were solid and he’ll be tough again here. Kentucky Derby winning trainer Eric Reed sends out #3 WELLMAN (3/1). He has never raced on turf but Reed is historically successful here at Mountaineer and this horse has run races that would make him a possible winner. Finally, #5 DESERT COWBOY (6/1) looked like the real deal breaking his maiden on this course on June 28 and could provide his backers some joy if he can run back to that.
USE: #2 PRINCE AMADEUS, #3 WELLMAN, #5 DESERT COWBOY, #8 NEW YEAR SURPRISE
CONSIDER: #4 THE BEST DISTANCE (5/1)
MY PICK 5 TICKET
Race 5: 4, 8
Race 6: 1, 7
Race 7: 4, 5, 9, 10
Race 8: 2, 3
Race 9: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
Ticket Cost: $80 for 50-cents
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