Grade: C
Main Ticket: 8 All That Magic; 4 Kaufymaker
Backups: 1 Queen of the Mud; 12 La Traviesa

Forecast: No doubt this 5-furlong turf affair goes through 2-1-morning line favorite #5 Kaufymaker. The daughter of Jimmy Creed has won 2 of her last 3 and 4 of 10 overall, but has struggled to put races together throughout her career. She competed last at Keeneland in the Grade 2 Woodford last October where she stalked early and tired late. At her best, she handles this field, but she is likely to take a ton of public support. #1 Queen of the Mud is the logical alternative to the chalk. The lightly raced Kodiac filly rattled off two consecutive victories to end her 3YO campaign and clearly has a ton of upside. That said, she did take advantage of favorable voyages in both wins and the rail draw is far from ideal.

While the two top choices on the morning line bring strong resumes into this year’s The Very One, they both like to be forward and are coming in off extended breaks making them tough to fully trust. So, lets include a couple of others that could provide some early separation in this two-day Pick 5. #8 All That Magic attracts Luis Saez and has won 5 of 7 on the lawn. She is my lukewarm top choice, while #12 La Traviesa returns to the races for Michael Matz. If they go at it early, she should be rolling in the lane.

Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4 Call Another Play
Backups: 5 Gun Song

Forecast: This year’s Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan appears wide-open with Southern California import #7 Corposo listed as the 5-2 choice. The Vino Rosso filly has certainly taken a step forward since stretching out to two turns, but is a pass for me at anything close to the 5-2-morning line. The Peter Eurton trainee got a perfect trip off of odds-on Bonaqua in her lone victory back in March and was able to prevail by a nose. The race came back fast, but it is important to note that Bonaqua has lost at 6-5 or less in three consecutive starts. Corposo was in chase mode in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks, so not going to hold that well-beaten third against her too much, but she nonetheless feels like a vulnerable favorite.

#3 Lemon Muffin and #8 Recharge appear the likeliest alternatives, but I am against them as well. Lemon Muffin put in some solid efforts this winter in Arkansas, but her last couple have been underwhelming. Sure, she was beaten out of the gate and never truly comfortable in the Kentucky Oaks, but she was badly outclassed as well. I expect the Lukas filly to be an underlay. Recharge has some upside entering Friday 3 for 4, but she has encountered soft groups in the Southwest before battling early and tiring late in the Fantasy (G2) in late March.

#5 Gun Song is intriguing for Mark Hennig. The Gun Runner filly was beaten out of the gate and in a bit tight early in her stalk & fade effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in late March. She needs to prove she can handle two turns still, but she could get a favorable trip under Hall of Famer John Velazquez. #4 Call Another Play intrigues most, especially given likely price. The Michael Trombetta filly has moved forward at a nice pace since adding blinkers last December and should get a good setup for her off the pace style. Anything close to 8-1 is more than fair!

Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Charging; 12 Beer Can Man; 8 Boat’s a Rockin; 11 Witty
Backups: 4 Mid Day Image

Forecast: The pace should be honest, but not overly chaotic in the middle leg of the All-Stakes Two-Day Pick 5. #10 Charging should end up getting a great trip just off the early tempo with Irad Ortiz, Jr. jumping aboard for the first time. Last time out in the King T. Leatherbury, the Candy Ride colt was up and on a pace that fell apart. Expect a more favorable voyage on Saturday, with the move to an outside draw and the leg up to one of the world’s best riders. #12 Beer Can Man is an obvious alternative on the drop for Phil D’Amato after being outrun in his first start off the bench versus better in the Grade 2 Shakertown. #11 Witty is also extremely logical coming in having won 2 in a row and 3 of 4. If he gets another fast pace, he could prove tough to hold off. #8 Boat’s a Rockin returns to the races for the first time since last November, but the layoff is not a concern. His trainer Brandon Kulp is 30 for 115 over the last five years with horses making their first start off a 90-to-180-day break.

Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 12 Funtastic Again
Backups: 10 Emmanuel

Forecast: This year’s Dinner Party drew a solid field of 12 led by 5-2-morning line favorite #10 Emmanuel. The 5YO son of More Than Ready has had an outstanding career winning half of his starts, including 5 of 10 tries over the lawn. He should get a great trip in a race that lacks a ton of early zip, but he also feels like a horse we have already seen the best of making his likely offering too short. On the other hand, #12 Funtastic Again is great value at anything near his 12-1-morning line price. The Three Chimneys Farm colt stalked three-wide in his most recent third-place finish in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Classic over the all-weather at Turfway Park. He makes his third start off the break on Saturday and should get a dream run just off likely longshot pacesetter #8 Helms Deep. Let’s hope Funtastic Again is sitting on a career-best performance.

Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Just Steel; 5 Mystik Dan
Backups: 3 Catching Freedom; 8 Tuscan Gold

Forecast: The second leg of the Triple Crown came together nicely with both Kentucky Derby winner #5 Mystik Dan and fourth-place finisher #3 Catching Freedom both making the decision to run prior to Monday’s draw. They had legitimate chances before the scratch of morning line favorite #4 Muth, but significantly better now that the Arkansas Derby winner is out afterspiking a fever Tuesday night. Not only is the Preakness more wide-open without the pricey son of Good Magic, but the early tempo becomes murkier without the likely pacesetter.

#7 Just Steel is unlikely to get an overly aggressive ride from Joel Rosario, but he should find himself involved early with the lack of speed signed on. The Justify colt surprisingly got cooked up in the early Derby pace, but has done most of his best running from an early stalking position. Other than his speed and fade effort in the Derby, Just Steel has been extremely consistent as a three-year-old. His only other out of the money finish came when he was caught impossibly wide throughout in the Rebel. I will build my 2024 Preakness wagers around the D. Wayne Lukas trainee.   
 
Kentucky Derby winner #5 Mystik Dan took advantage of his ground saving trip on the first Saturday in May and comes back on two weeks rest after running hard in Louisville. That said, I am not overly concerned with regression since he did not perform well over his head from a figures perspective in the Derby. Plus, he becomes that much tougher if Baltimore gets the rain that looks possible a few days out. The main concern other than potentially sitting off a dawdling early pace is his price with Muth out.