The Preakness Stakes Future Wager Pool 2 opens Friday at noon eastern and closes shortly before they head to the post for the 150th Kentucky Derby. The pool offers horseplayers 31 individual entries, as well as an "all others" field option listed at 20-1 on the morning line.
While the obvious goal in wagering on futures is to cash winning tickets, the real long-term goal is getting your money in good. In other words, you want to make bets that will offer greater value than the parimutuel price when the horse breaks from the starting gate.
When I look at some of the shorter-priced entries in Future Pool 2 competing in the Kentucky Derby, it is pretty simple. If they win the first leg of the Triple Crown, they will be a shorter price come Preakness Day than when Future Pool 2 closes. If they do not win, they are less likely to run on May 18. Trainers like Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Brad Cox amongst others have rarely pushed their horses onto Baltimore after defeat in Louisville in recent years, a turnaround once treated as common. In the rarest of cases, the connections have even opted not to run in the Preakness off of a Derby victory (Rich Strike in 2022). Knowing this makes it difficult to get excited about placing a Preakness Future Wager on Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Just a Touch. Cox-trained Encino definitely would be tough to see in Baltimore if he runs in Louisville since he raced in mid-April at Keeneland. There's still some discussion he could await the Preakness.
One Derby starter that caught my eye was Forever Young. The Japanese import is a “B” for me in the Run for the Roses, but if he wins, he is going to be a far shorter price at Pimlico. Not only will the top-tier Cox and Pletcher runners likely skip the Preakness, but it will be a massive international news story likely to deflate the Japanese import’s price even more. He is the lone Derby starter I have interest in betting in Future Wager Pool 2, especially if he is below 10-1 or so in the hours leading up to the Derby and at least his morning line price (15-1) in the Preakness Future Pool 2.
In terms of those not competing in Louisville, the obvious question is: How to handle Muth? Assuming the Bob Baffert trainee makes the race, it seems very unlikely he will go off much higher than his 3-1 morning line Futures offering. If one of the top contenders in the Kentucky Derby win and run a big number, he could be second choice in the Preakness. If anyone 15-1 or higher wins, Muth is very likely to go off the public choice in Baltimore. I am not jumping in on Muth in Pool 2, but if you think he is the most talented three-year-old colt in the country, I would not fault you for swallowing chalk.
My favorite wager in Future Wager Pool 2 is Tuscan Gold. His trainer Chad Brown has won the Preakness twice, both with runners (Cloud Computing and Early Voting) who did not participate in the Kentucky Derby. Plus, I really like this Medaglia d’Oro colt’s last two races, particularly his third-place effort in the Louisiana Derby when he was caught wide throughout. His price at the Preakness starting gate will depend on the Derby result, but I see very few scenarios where he will not offer solid value in this Preakness Futures market.
The Derby will get all the attention come next Saturday, but do not forget to place those Preakness Future Pool 2 wagers. There is very likely value to be found!
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