Inasmuch as Kentucky Derby hopefuls will be in action this Saturday (March 4) at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Aqueduct and Turfway Park, my Kentucky Derby Top 10 next week almost certainly will look very different than it does this week.
Confidence Game cracks my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after capturing Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday (Feb. 25) in an 18-1 upset.
Fifth early in the field of 11, Confidence Game splashed home to a one-length Rebel triumph on a sloppy track.
Keith Desormeaux trains Confidence Game. Desormeaux is one of the best I have ever seen at doing extremely well with a horse purchased at auction for a modest price. The best example is Exaggerator.
Bought for $110,000 as a yearling, Exaggerator earned $3,581,120. He won such Grade I events as the Santa Anita Derby, Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational. Exaggerator ran second to Nyquist in another Grade I race, the Kentucky Derby.
A $25,000 yearling purchase, Confidence Game earned $581,750 for his Rebel victory. Desormeaux is just flat amazing at being able to do this.
Candy Ride, who was undefeated in six career starts, is the sire of Confidence Game. Candy Ride’s 1 1/4-mile Del Mar track record of 1:59.11 has stood since he set it in the 2003 Pacific Classic. That record very nearly was broken last summer. The fabulous Flightline’s final time was 1:59.28 when he won the 2022 Pacific Classic by a block, or more specifically 19 1/4 lengths.
Confidence Game’s dam is Eblouissante, who won two of seven lifetime starts. However, Eblouissante is a half-sister to 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta, who won her first 19 straight starts before ending her racing career with a narrow loss to Blame in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Zenyatta ranks No. 3 on my list of the Top 100 Thoroughbreds of the 21st century so far to have won in North America. The Top 10 consists of Flightline, followed in order by American Pharoah, Zenyatta, Arrogate, Ghostzapper, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Justify, Shared Belief and California Chrome.
Red Route One rallied from 11th to finish second in the Rebel at 9-1. Reincarnate had plenty of adversity and still managed to come in third at 9-2. Verifying, the 3-2 favorite, ran fourth.
Southern California shipper Reincarnate was my top choice in the Rebel. Not off alertly, he was shuffled back to ninth early. After making a move to get closer in upper stretch, Reincarnate then was checked when in a sticky wicket a little past the eighth pole.
“Reincarnate ran as encouraging a race as anyone,” Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote in his post-race Rebel analysis. “A pace player in his two SoCal routes, most recently a maiden win, Reincarnate shipped, caught his first wet track, was forced into a completely foreign race position, found trouble and still ran a good third.”
I saw it much same way as Hersh in that I believe, all things considered, Reincarnate did well to finish third. Hence, he remains on my Top 10.
Cave Rock exits my Top 10 this week. According to Horseracingnation.com’s Ron Flatter, “two horses who were considered top prospects for Kentucky Derby 2023 were taken off the trail this week when their owners did not transfer them from Bob Baffert to eligible trainers before a Tuesday [Feb. 28] deadline by Churchill Downs.”
Flatter reported that Baffert said in a text message to Horseracingnation that Cave Rock and Faustin are “still under my care” after the Feb. 28 deadline. That response also applied to Speed Boat Beach, who has not raced since he won the Grade III Cecil B. DeMille Stakes at Del Mar on the grass Dec. 4.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Tapit Trice
4. Instant Coffee
5. Hejazi
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Skinner
8. Angel of Empire
9. Reincarnate
10. Confidence Game
Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):
Blazing Sevens, Carmel Road, Damon’s Mound, Denington, Disarm, Eyeing Clover, General Jim, Gun Pilot, Hard to Figure, Henry Q., Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Litigate, National Treasure, Please Be Nice, Practical Move, Recruiter, Red Route One, Rocket Can, Sun Thunder, Tall Boy, Two Eagles River, Two Phil’s, Worcester and Verifying.
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES SELECTIONS
Forte, a three-time Grade I winner last year who was voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, heads a field of 10 entered in Gulfstream Park’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Forte won last year’s Grade I Hopeful Stakes, Grade I Breeders’ Futurity and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Kentucky-bred Violence colt has not raced since the Breeders’ Cup last Nov. 4.
Interestingly, like the aforementioned Confidence Game, Forte was an auction purchase for $110,000. He currently has a bankroll of $1,595,150.
Forte is the 7-5 morning-line favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth. Blazing Sevens is the second choice at 7-2. General Jim is 6-1. Mage and Rocket Can are each 8-1. Everyone else is 12-1 or higher.
Blazing Sevens certainly merits respect. Winning of last year’s Grade I Champagne Stakes for trainer Chad Brown, the Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt has not started since finishing fourth in the BC Juvenile last fall.
My top pick in the Fountain of Youth is Cyclone Mischief. You might think I’m crazy. Maybe I am. But I’m thinking if there ever was a time to try and beat Forte and Blazing Sevens, it’s when they are both returning from a layoff.
Cyclone Mischief is coming off a dreadful performance. He finished seventh as the 6-5 favorite in Gulfstream’s Grade II Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 4. Prior to the Holy Bull, he won a first-level allowance/optional claiming contest by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 while receiving a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. That sparkling effort was why he was 6-5 in the Holy Bull.
I’m going to draw a line through Cyclone Mischief’s horrible Holy Bull and hope he rebounds in the Fountain of Youth. After being 6-5 last time, he figures to be a considerably bigger price this time. Indeed, he is 12-1 on the morning line.
My selections for the Fountain of Youth Stakes are below:
1. Cyclone Mischief
2. Forte
3. Blazing Sevens
4. Mage
SAN FELIPE STAKES SELECTIONS
This is a terrific race. It appears to me that this Grade II affair has five main contenders. They are, in alphabetical order, Geaux Rocket Ride, Hejazi, National Treasure, Practical Move and Skinner. I would not be surprised to see any one of them posing for pictures after the race.
As for my top pick, I’m giving the slightest of nods to Hejazi (pictured above). The $3.55 million auction purchase recorded a 99 Beyer Speed Figure when he won a maiden special weight race on a wet track Jan. 15 in his 2023 debut.
Hejazi’s maiden graduation came in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint. The New York-bred colt will be going 1 1/16 miles in the San Felipe. His pedigree (by Bernardini out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare) indicates to me that there is a good chance that he is more than just a sprinter.
My selections for the San Felipe Stakes are below:
1. Hejazi
2. Geaux Rocket Ride
3. Skinner
4. Practical Move
GOTHAM STAKES SELECTIONS
This year’s Grade III Gotham Stakes has drawn an overflow field of 15, including one also eligible. This one-mile contest around one turn looks wide open.
I’m going with Eyeing Clover as my top pick (even though he drew post 13). He’s two for two. I was impressed with his 9 3/4-length win in a Fair Grounds allowance/optional claimer on Jan. 28 following a maiden special weight victory at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 31. He’s a son of two-time Eclipse Award winner Lookin At Lucky.
My selections for the Gotham Stakes are below:
1. Eyeing Clover
2. Recruiter
3. Slip Mahoney
4. Carmel Road
JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL SELECTIONS
Turfway Park’s John Battaglia Memorial, like the Gotham, has enticed an overflow field. Fourteen are entered, including two also eligibles.
I’ve landed on Gilmore in the Battaglia, which will be run at 1 1/16 miles on a synthetic surface. The Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt is coming off a second in the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby at 1 1/8 miles on synthetic footing Feb. 11 at Golden Gate Fields.
My selections for the John Battaglia Memorial are below:
1. Gilmore
2. Congruent
3. Bromley
4. Scoobie Quando
SAUDI CUP RUNNER-UP FLATTERS FLIGHTLINE
When Flightline won Del Mar’s Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles by an astonishing 19 1/4 lengths last year, Country Grammer ran second.
That same Country Grammer finished a fast-closing second last Saturday (Feb. 25) in the world’s richest horse race, the $20 million Saudi Cup. He lost by three-quarters of a length to Japan’s Panthalassa.
In my view, it’s an indication of how tremendously talented the now-retired Flightline was as a racehorse that he was able to annihilate a quality foe such as Country Grammer by 19+ lengths last summer.
Country Grammer prefers to go farther than the Saudi Cup trip of about 1 1/8 miles. He finished second in the 2022 Saudi Cup, then went on to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup at the longer distance of about 1 1/4 miles.
I believe it’s encouraging for Country Grammer that he had a clear lead shortly after the finish of the shorter Saudi Cup. That should set him up nicely for the longer Dubai World Cup.
No question that the disappointment in this year’s Saudi Cup was Taiba, who ended up eighth when coming off a 4 1/4-length win in Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs on Dec. 26.
WILL ANYONE EVER BREAK ASMUSSEN’S RECORD?
Steve Asmussen ranks as North America’s all-time leader in wins by a Thoroughbred trainer. On Aug. 7, 2021, when Stellar Tap prevailed in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga, Asmussen registered his 9,446th victory to take over the top spot in most wins by a North American trainer from the late Dale Baird.
Asmussen recently became the first North American trainer to win 10,000 Thoroughbred races. He reached the milestone when Bet He’s Ready proved a punctual even-money favorite in the fifth race at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 20.
Each time Asmussen sends out a winner, he breaks the North American record for all-time victories by a Thoroughbred trainer.
Ray Paulick and Joe Nevills of The Paulick Report said last week that they believe that this record of Asmussen’s, whatever it ends up being when his career ends, is unbreakable. I agree with them.
Paulick and Nevills also consider Russell Baze’s all-time North American record of 12,842 wins by a Thoroughbred jockey to be unbreakable. Again, I agree with them.
Baze retired at the age of 57 in 2016 after finishing second aboard Wahine Warrior in the 10th and final race at Golden Gate Fields on June 12.
In 1974, Baze rode his first winner. That happened in the Pacific Northwest at a small track in Washington, Walla Walla, but it didn’t count. Thoroughbred races at Walla Walla were not sanctioned by the Daily Racing Form, meaning it was a so-called “bush track.”
After beginning his career at Walla Walla, Baze rode his first official Thoroughbred winner at Yakima Meadows in Central Washington on Oct. 28, 1974. The horse he piloted was Oregon Warrior. Not many were there that rainy afternoon, as evidenced by attendance being just 1,931. I was there that day.
Oregon Warrior won a six-furlong sprint for $1,250 claimers with a $700 purse by 2 1/2 lengths on a muddy track. He paid $8, $4.10 and $2.50 across the board.
Joe Baze, Russell’s father, trained Oregon Warrior. A successful jockey before becoming a trainer, Joe Baze rode six winners in one day at Golden Gate on April 12, 1965.
At Santa Anita in 2002, Russell Baze received the prestigious George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award. One of the most coveted awards in all of racing, the Woolf Award, which can only be won once, is presented to a different jockey each year and recognizes those riders whose careers and personal character earn esteem for the individual and the sport of Thoroughbred racing.
When I interviewed Baze between races at Santa Anita that day for the track’s simulcast television network, I asked him if he remembered his first win at Yakima Meadows in 1974 on Oregon Warrior.
“I sure do,” he said with a twinkle in his eye. “My dad told me how I should ride the horse. He told me to get him out of the gate as good as I can, then keep him in the clear. So I stayed wide the entire race, even though I was clear and could have moved down to the [inside] rail. After the race, after my dad had seen me win despite pretty much being in the middle of the track the whole race, he said, ‘Son, that wasn’t exactly what I had in mind.’
“My dad sure didn’t think it was too good that I stayed out in the middle of the track for the whole race,” Russell said with a chuckle.
OTHER RACING RECORDS I SEE AS UNBREAKABLE
Below are a number of other records in horse racing I consider to be unbreakable, listed alphabetically:
ALSAB, 15 wins in one year as a 2-year-old, a North American record set in 1941. Can you imagine seeing another 2-year-old post 15 victories in one year? I can’t.
Alsab, who sold for only $700 as a yearling, finished 14th while making his career debut on a sloppy track at Hialeah on Feb. 25, 1941. He was dismissed in the wagering at 72-1. The colt also lost his next race at Tropical Park. For Alsab, the third time proved the charm, as he graduated from the maiden ranks at Tropical Park on March 28. He would go on to win 14 more races before 1941 was over.
CAMARERO, 56 consecutive wins from 1952-55, a world record. Joe Dimaggio of the New York Yankees in 1941 set the iconic baseball record of hitting safely in 56 straight games, a mark that still stands. Camarero, racing exclusively in Puerto Rico, won 56 straight races from April 1953 to August 1955. Puerto Rico’s first Triple Crown winner in 1954, Camarero won 73 of 77 starts during his career.
CITATION, 19 wins in one year, a North American record set in 1948. Citation won 19 of 20 starts that year as a 3-year-old. It’s hard to imagine someone ever breaking that record. These days, it would be quite a feat for a horse to start 19 times in one year, let alone win 19 times.
CITATION, 16 stakes wins in one year, a North American record set in 1948. This one probably is tougher for anyone to break than Citation’s 19 wins in one year.
DESORMEAUX, KENT, 598 wins in one year, a North American record set in 1989. He averaged 11.5 wins per week in 1989, a truly remarkable achievement. Desormeaux once told me how worn out he was by the end of that year, both mentally and physically.
The second-highest total of wins for one year was Chris McCarron’s 546 in 1974, which stood as the record until the big year by Desormeaux in 1989. The only other times a jockey has exceeded 500 victories in one year was when Sandy Hawley rode 515 winners in 1973 and Edgar Prado rode 536 winners in 1997.
JOHN HENRY, Horse of the Year in 1984 at age 9, a record for an American Horse of the Year. I will be shocked if this record for being the oldest Horse of the Year is ever tied, let alone broken.
KELSO, five straight Horse of the Year titles from 1960-64, a North American record. Going all the way back to Daily Racing Form’s first poll of champions in 1936 and continuing on through the Eclipse Awards era from 1971 to today, only one horse, Forego, has been acclaimed Horse of the Year more than twice. Forego was a three-time Horse of the Year from 1974-76.
KINCSEM, 54 straight victories by a female Thoroughbred, an all-time record. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, “the best career win-loss record for a racehorse is 100% wins by Kincsem, who was unbeaten in all of her 54 races.”
Foaled in 1874, Kincsem (which means “My Treasure” in Hungarian) raced in eight different countries (Hungary, Austria, England, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Romania).
On June 26, 1876, Kincsem made her career debut in Germany, winning a race in Berlin by 12 lengths. She posted 10 victories as a 2-year-old, 17 as a 3-year-old, 15 as a 4-year-old and 12 as a 5-year-old. Exhibiting incredible versatility, she won at distances ranging from four furlongs to 2 5/8 miles.
Kincsem died on her 13th birthday, March 17, 1887.
Mary Simon, a multiple Eclipse Award-winning writer, wrote the following about Kincsem in The Thoroughbred Times in 1996:
“If even a fraction of the tales told of Kincsem were true, this Hungarian-bred mare would have been a most unique individual. Allegedly the product of a breeding error (her dam was wooed by the wrong stallion), she was such a homely yearling that her breeder was stuck with her -- at which point some local gypsies stole the filly and danced wildly about before she was recaptured. That part of the story may seem improbable, but it was too good to let go of, and has long since become part of the Kincsem legend.
“Other stories: The idiosyncratic mare had a passion for train travel, but refused to budge without her personal cat on her back. At post, she would graze on anything in sight, but at the barn she would eat only home-grown feed. After each race, she insisted that flowers be affixed to her bridle before she could be unsaddled.”
KINGSTON, 89 wins during his career, a North American record. Kingston was foaled in 1884. He won two races as a 2-year-old, 13 as a 3-year-old, 10 as a 4-year-old, 14 as a 5-year-old, nine as a 6-year-old, 15 as a 7-year-old, 13 as an 8-year-old, nine as a 9-year-old and four as a 10-year-old.
Kingston did not, as you might think, win all those races as a gelding. He went to stud following his racing career. Twice he was America’s leading sire.
LA PREVOYANTE, 12 wins as a 2-year-old filly in 1972, a North American record for a 2-year-old. La Prevoyante won all 12 of her starts at 2 in 1972. During her campaign that year, she was victorious on both dirt and turf. She won at seven different tracks (Woodbine, Blue Bonnets, Fort Erie, Saratoga, Belmont Park, Laurel and Garden State Park). Three of her victories came against males. She won such important stakes events as the Schuylerville and Spinaway at Saratoga, the Matron and Frizette at Belmont, the Selima at Laurel and the Gardenia at Garden State.
If a 2-year-old filly were to do that these days, she would have a very good chance to be voted Horse of the Year. But, in 1972, La Prevoyante’s accomplishments were overshadowed to some extent by an exciting 2-year-old colt by the name of Secretariat. Secretariat was voted Eclipse Awards as champion 2-year-old male and Horse of the Year. La Prevoyante was voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly. According to the American Racing Manual, La Prevoyante finished second to Secretariat in Eclipse Award Horse of the Year balloting. La Prevoyante was voted 1972 Horse of the Year in Canada.
It seems highly unlikely we will ever see another 2-year-old filly win 12 races in one year.
MCCARRON, CHRIS, 546 wins in one-year as an apprentice, a North American record set in 1974.
PAN ZARETA, 76 career wins as a female, a North American record. Do you think another female Thoroughbred will ever win 76 races? I’d say the chances are nil.
Bred in Texas and foaled in 1910, “Panzy” set or tied 11 track records. She also had the honor of becoming the first horse buried in the infield at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds after she died of pneumonia. In one of her victories, she carried 146 pounds, spotting the runner-up 46 pounds. Pan Zareta won at 21 different tracks (Aqueduct, Blue Bonnets, Butte, Churchill Downs, Coeur d’Alene, Connaught Park, Dallas, Devonshire Park, Douglas Park, Empire Park, Fair Grounds, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Jamaica, Juarez, Lagoon, Latonia, Lexington, Oaklawn Park, Washington Park and Windsor).
SOTEMIA, owner of the world record of 7:10 4/5 for four miles, set at Churchill Downs in 1941. Daily Racing Form writer Charles Hatton (who is credited with popularizing the term Triple Crown for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes when covering Gallant Fox’s sweep of the three races in 1930) wrote that he played hooky from school to see Sotemia set that world record for four miles.
Sotemia’s record seems quite safe to me because I don’t imagine we will ever see another four-mile race.
SECRETARIAT, owner of the Belmont Park track record and North American record of 2:24 for 1 1/2 miles on the dirt, set in the 1973 Belmont Stakes. Will someone ever win the Belmont Stakes in faster time than Secretariat? I don’t think so. In my opinion, there is a better chance someone will come along and break Secretariat’s track record of 1:59 2/5 for 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs than his mark for 1 1/2 miles at Belmont.
When Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths in 2:24 flat, he obliterated Gallant Man’s record of 2:26 3/5 established in 1957.
STEPHENS, WOODY, trainer of a record five consecutive Belmont Stakes winners. I certainly don’t expect to see anyone else to break this record in my lifetime, or quite possibly in anybody’s lifetime. Randy Moss of NBC Sports said recently on the Thoroughbred Daily News’ The Writers’ Room that of all the records in horse racing, this is the one that he’s the most confident will never be broken.
Stephens’ Belmont Stakes winning streak consisted of Conquistador Cielo (1982), Caveat (1983), Swale (1984), Cr�me Fraiche (1985) and Danzig Connection (1986). Stephens failed to make it six straight when Gone West finished sixth at 5-1 in the 1987 Belmont. Bet Twice won the 1987 while defeating Alysheba, who finished fourth when thwarted in his bid to sweep the Triple Crown.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 335 Art Collector (25)
2. 283 Country Grammer
3. 266 Elite Power (4)
4. 177 Defunded
5. 128 Cody’s Wish
6. 111 Nest
7. 107 Taiba
8. 103 Atone
9. 71 Clairiere
10. 44 Gunite
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 333 Forte (22)
2. 316 Arabian Knight (11)
3. 245 Instant Coffee (1)
3. 149 Confidence Game
5. 145 Cave Rock
6. 116 Angel of Empire
7. 105 Hit Show
8. 98 Rocket Can
9. 76 Blazing Sevens
10. 60 Litigate
10. 60 Reincarnate
.svg){kind=logo}
