Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Saturday, September 2, 2023

‍First Post:

1:30 pm ET

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Featured Races:

Race 8 – $1 million Gun Runner
Race 9 – $1 million Music City
Race 10 - $2 million Mint Millions

Betmix Stat of the Day:

Of the 79 stakes at Kentucky Downs over the past 5 year, including opening Thursday, winners last prepped at Saratoga on 27 occasions, Ellis Park 17 times and Del Mar next with 5. Overall, Saratoga runners have an 11.2% win rate in KD stakes during that time, Ellis 8.4% and Del Mar 8.2% … An additional timely note: Thursday’s 37-1 Tapit Stakes winner Harlan Estate was the fifth KD stakes winner at a $75+ win mutuel at KD in the past decade.

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 1 (1:30 pm ET)

#5 Janka (15-1 ML)

Value search in the opener as horses with experience account for about 77% of the juvenile maiden special weight wins at Kentucky Downs the last 5 years. Notably here there will be well-bet rookies for the Chad Brown and Brad Cox barns, thus creating overlays among the experienced. Let’s give a price shot to second-timer Janka. Unheralded trainer Kelsey Danner won a pair of 2-year-old races at the 2022 KD meet, including a $47 bomb via Colonial Downs like this one. Janka should like the move to turf after some mid-race interest in the slop in his debut.

Note: Trainer Danner also comes back in Race 5 (3:41 pm ET) with #3 Glenbrook Gerry (8-1 ML) in a very similar scenario. Either or both could be live at nice prices Saturday. Danner won an elder maiden race in Thursday’s finale to get the meet off to a good start.

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Race 7 (4:48 pm ET)

#4 Elegant Trip (7-2 ML)

Did the dirty work in debut chasing a 1-2 shot and ran better than most rookies for a Rusty Arnold barn that infinitely gets better second time out than first. Arnold also has had very strong success with older maidens at Kentucky Downs over the last decade (20: 5-5-1, $2.31 ROI for every $1 bet).

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Race 10 (6:28 pm ET)

#3 Stitched (20-1 ML)
Even effort here in stakes company last year sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, so Saturday’s mile trip should suit this one better. I anticipate he’ll be used much closer to the pace under hustling turf rider Florent Geroux. Last win at 46-1 in the Wise Dan points that he can handle this class, and the public rarely does an about-face on the tote so quickly on longshots. Should hold value again and be the price play. Also use with logical players #10 Annapolis and #2 Atone in exotics.

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