Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Quick Brown Fox
Backups/savers: 3-Queen of Napes; 4-Ms Bo J.
Forecast: The highly regarded Quick Brown Fox was entered and scratched in February and when a minor problem surfaced but her recent works indicate she’s fit and ready now for a major effort in her debut. The daughter of Justify from Grade-1 winner Bast has done everything like a potentially stakes quality fit, and while she may not be blazingly quick this seven furlong distance should give her every chance to win at first asking. There’s some decent fillies with experience in the field, but none with her potential, so at 9/5 on the morning line we’ll make her a confident rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Cane Creek Road; 3-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cane Creek Road always has been a genuine and consistent turf sprinter – he’s finished first or second in 11 of 26 career starts and is a two-time winner over the local lawn – and after winning from a similar field last month following a three month vacation the son of Bayern should fire another big shot today. He’s especially effective in abbreviated turf sprints and utilizes and effective second flight stalk and pounce style. Regular rider A. Fresu knows him well and stays aboard. Give Me the Lute, a strong runner-up (beaten a half- length) by our top pick last time out, can be considered the one to fear most once again.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Magic Account
Backups/savers:2-Carol’s Comic.
Forecast: Magic Account was nosed out in a similar bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint last month in just his second career start (and his first outing in more than a year) and a similar try today – especially from the cozy outside draw – should be more than good enough to earn a diploma in this soft six runner affair. Because of the discrepancy in speed figures when compared to Carol’s Comic (8/5) , it’s understandable that he’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2, but we wouldn’t be surprised at all if he goes favored.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Mucho Del Oro; 4-Lane Way.
Backups/savers: 3-First Peace.
Forecast: This is an evenly matched group of older turf sprinters who know each other well. We’ll double the race while preferring Mucho Del Oro on top. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding is fresh from a game win in the San Simeon Stakes over this Hillside Course and distance, and while he’ll pick up two lbs. off that win we’re not expecting to see any regression. Lane Way was third as the favorite (beaten a length) by ‘Oro last time out in his first race since early December and should be fitter and sharper today.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Tambo; 5-In Theory.
Backups/savers: 2-Show Card
Forecast This is a tough, stakes-quality filly for sophomore filly sprinters. Tambo is comfortably placed outside and should snap back to top form while returning to dirt and shortening back to a sprint. She’s the fastest on figures but is facing at least a couple of high potential types who could outclass her. In Theory didn’t earn the big figure that was expected in her debut, but she still managed to win and seems likely to produce a forward move today for trainer B. Baffert, whose second timers often step forward. She was 50 cents on the dollar in that race and seems likely to go lower than her 5/2 morning line today.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Red Cross Knight
Backups/savers: 2-Oubabe; 6-Dick Best.
Forecast: Red Cross Knight has solid form at this level and can be counted on for another big shot. The pace scenario could allow him to become the controlling speed, and if he can secure that type of trip he’ll be especially difficult to run down. We’ll use him as a single on the bulk of our tickets while also including two others for protection just in case ‘Knight performs below our expectations.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10-Bad Sneakers; 2-Gavea.
Backups/savers: 8-Dual Threat.
Forecast: Bad Sneakers will have to overcome the extreme outside draw in this main track miler and we’re not entirely the opportunity will present itself, but if the M. Glatt-trained gelding can get over a save enough ground early to secure a decent early position he should have every chance to return to winning form. Quite frankly, his most recent race - following his maiden win last December at Los Alamitos – was quite disappointing, so we’re really not quite sure where he’s at. Gavea had nothing behind him when destroying a weak maiden claiming field by more than 16 lengths last month. If he can duplicate the number against this much stronger field he’ll be right there.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 2-North East Star (Ire) .
Backups/savers: 6-Inner Beauty (Ire); 1-Dendera.
Forecast: North East Star (Ire) is a first-off-the-claim for trainer P. Miller, and after winning from a (nw-2) $25,000 field over a mile two months ago she returns on the raise while shortening to a Hillside sprint. Based strictly on figures, the Irish-bred filly is a solid fit at this level and two races back she showed she could handle the tricky layoff when a good runner-up despite stumbling at the start and losing early position. J. Hernandez rides her back, so we’re expecting another winning effort as a potential rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 3-Desert Dawn
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Desert Dawn was a distant fourth in the Beholder Mile-G1 last time out in a Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 level race won by Sweet Azteca, with subsequent runaway Apple Blossom S.-G1 Adare Manor franking the form in her next outing. She’s been given sufficient time off since that race to recover, so off her best race – or a repeat of her La Canada S.-G3 two runs back – the P. D’Amato-trained mare should be more than capable of handling this considerable easier assignment. She’s a logical rolling exotic singe, though at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go a bit lower there’s probably not a whole lot of wagering value available.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:36 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 5-Runamileinmyshoes; 9-Ashleys Sandcastle; 10-Isabel Ludlow.
Backups/savers: 7-Quantum Innergy.
Forecast: Runamileinmyshoes was disappointing when having every chance but flattening out late to be third as the favorite in a similar affair over this course and distance last month but she’s a first-time blinkers user today, so we’ll give her another chance based on that factor alone. The J. Mullins barn always has done well with this angle, and with J. Hernandez staying aboard the daughter of Street Boss will have no excuses. Ashleys Sandcastle, in the frame in her last three but a beaten choice in her most recent two outings, picks up Frankie and figures somewhere in the fray again, while Isabel Ludlow is a one-paced grinder but projects to be prominent throughout and won’t have to improve much to graduate.
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