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Get expert insights on all 9 Breeders' Cup Saturday championship races at Keeneland. Jeremy Plonk and Scott Shapiro pull no punches in their analysis and picks.



Most prolific international Japanese dirt runner of all-time looks for back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classic wins in his third race appearance (third in the 2024 edition at age 3). The '24 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher has won his last 2 US trips, remaining stateside since winning the 9/18 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont.

Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner looks to cement a Horse of the Year title if able to beat elders in his first attempt to do so in the Classic. Exits a third-place finish as the favorite in August's Travers at Saratoga. Jockey Jose Ortiz opts to ride him over Magnitude. Sire Curlin won 2007 Classic.

Premier sprint-middle distance runner stretched out to 1-1/4 miles for the first time in a romping Pacific Classic victory at Del Mar in late August. Son of 2015 Juvenile & 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist could run in the Classic or Dirt Mile, based on the direction of Godolphin stablemate Sovereignty.

Last year's Distaff runner-up at age 3 has won this year's Bayakoa, Phipps, and Beldame in a 4-year-old season that includes a second-place effort against the boys in Saratoga's Whitney. She's never finished out of the top-3 in 18 starts and was second in Keeneland's Spinster a season ago.

Defending BC Mile champ won last year's event as the 5-2 favorite after finishing third as the 2-1 chalk in 2024. Repeated his Woodbine Mile prep victory in September to go along with a pair of UK Group 1 wins on the season. Troubled fourth on Keeneland turf in Maker's Mark Mile this April.

California's top 2-year-old won Del Mar's Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity sprinting and stretched out easily around 2 turns to win Santa Anita's American Pharoah by 6 lengths. Trainer Bob Baffert aims for a record-padding 7th BC Juvenile score. Sire Into Mischief's sons Citizen Bull and Ted Noffey have won the last 2 BC Juveniles.

PHOTO: Coady Media ... A winner on the Breeders' Cup undercard last year at Del Mar, he's become an international star this season at age 3, winning Derby Week at Churchill before scoring at Royal Ascot and in York's Group 1 Nunthorpe. Half-length shy of being undefeated in 6 starts.

Back-to-back Grade 1 winner of Saratoga's Woody Stephens and H. Allen Jerkens against fellow 3-year-olds. Dominant dasher has an average win margin of 6 lengths but has yet to face elder rivals. Drefong (2016) was the most recent 3YO to win the Sprint, following Runhappy the year prior at Keeneland.

Former steeplechaser upset last year's BC Turf at 26-1 odds when denying Rebel's Romance a potential third victory in this division. He's won 1 of 4 this year and exits a second-place finish in the Kentucky Turf Cup upon a return trip to the US. Conduit (2008-'09) was the last back-to-back Turf winner.
Dominant 3YO filly in Europe has won 4 straight Group 1s spanning England, France, and Ireland in that streak. She's won her last 6 starts and has finished first or second in 11 straight attempts.

UK star has won 5 straight, including the Group 1 Phoenix, Moyglare Stud and Cheveley Park. She's just about 1 length shy of being a perfect 8-for-8 and will be one of the strongest favorites of Future Stars Friday.
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New to Horse Race Betting? No worries—we’ve got you. This section breaks down the basics of horse racing bets, from the simple stuff like traditional Win bets to more advanced plays like Exactas and Pick 5s. We'll take a look at how odds work, how payouts are calculated, and what it all means for your wallet. It’s everything you need to understand betting and enjoy the action.
If you're new to horse racing or looking to understand the basics, it's essential to grasp the Traditional bet types: Win, Place, and Show. These straightforward wagers are the foundation of horse race betting and are ideal for beginners.
A WIN bet is the simplest type of horse racing wager—you’re picking a horse to come in first place. If your horse finishes at the front, you’ll earn a payout based on the final odds for that horse. For instance, if you wager $2 on a horse with 5-to-1 odds (5/1) and it wins, you’d get $10 in profit ($5 for every $1 bet), plus your original $2 bet back, totaling $12.
Last year's BC Classic $2 WIN bet paid $9.00
A PLACE bet gives you two chances to win. You’re backing a horse to finish either first or second. As long as your chosen horse comes in one of those top two positions, you’ll receive a payout. Since the odds of winning are better than a Win bet, the potential payout is typically smaller.
Last year's BC Classic $2 PLACE bet paid $4.80
A SHOW bet offers the most leeway—you’re betting on a horse to finish in the top three. Whether your pick comes in first, second, or third, you’ll get paid. While this type of bet has the highest chance of a return, it also comes with the lowest payout due to the broader margin for success.
Last year's BC Classic $2 SHOW bet paid $3.20
Betting them ACROSS THE BOARD is probably a term you've heard. It's a popular and straightforward wager where you’re betting on a horse to Win, Place, and Show all at once. This would be shown as WIN/PLACE/SHOW or WPS on the betting pad. If your horse finishes first, you collect the Win, Place, and Show payouts. If your horse finishes second, you collect the Place and Show payouts, and if it finishes third, you would just collect the Show payout.
A $2 WIN/PLACE/SHOW aka 'ACROSS THE BOARD' on last year's BC Classic winner FOREVER YOUNG would have cost you $6 total ($2 for WIN, $2 for PLACE & $2 for SHOW) and returned $17.00 in winnings.
Once you’ve mastered the basics, Exotic bets offer a thrilling next step. These wagers involve predicting multiple outcomes—like the exact order of finishers in a single race—and they come with higher risk but much bigger potential rewards. Whether you’re chasing an Exacta or aiming for the elusive Superfecta, exotic bets bring strategy, excitement, and serious payout possibilities to the track.
An EXACTA bet ups the challenge. You’re predicting which two horses will finish first and second, in the exact order. If your selections cross the line in that precise sequence, you win. It’s tougher than a Win or Place bet, but the payouts can be significantly higher. Not confident about the exact order, but like your horse picks? Box your bet, and as long as your selected horses finish in the top 2 spots—1st and 2nd—they can finish in any order and you’ll still win.
Last year's BC Classic $2 EXACTA bet paid $34.60
Taking it a step further, a TRIFECTA bet requires you to choose the first three finishers in the exact order. Nail all three in the right sequence and you’ll score a much bigger payout—though it’s definitely harder to hit than an Exacta. Box your bet, and as long as your selected horses finish in the top 3 spots—1st through 3rd—they can finish in any order and you’ll still win.
Last year's BC Classic $0.50 TRIFECTA bet paid $30.10
The SUPERFECTA is where serious bettors test their skill. You must pick the top four horses to finish in the exact order. It’s a high-risk, high-reward wager that can deliver massive payouts if you’re able to beat the odds. Box your bet, and as long as your selected horses finish in the top 4 spots—1st through 4th—they can finish in any order and you’ll still win.
Last year's BC Classic $0.10 SUPERFECTA bet paid $20.74
The EXACT 5 is the ultimate single race exotic bet. You must pick the top five horses to finish in the exact order. It’s even higher-risk than the super, but a higher-reward wager that can deliver extremely massive payouts if you’re able to nail each spot. Box your bet, and as long as your selected horses finish in the top 5 spots—1st through 5th—they can finish in any order and you’ll still win.
Last year's BC Classic $0.50 EXACT 5 bet paid $341.85
Multi-race wagers add an extra layer of excitement to the day’s card. Instead of betting on just one race, you’re trying to predict the winners of multiple consecutive races. These bets raise the stakes—and the payouts—making them popular among players who enjoy longer-range strategy and higher risk. To increase your chances of hitting winners, you can include more than one horse in each race. That will raise your ticket cost, but it also boosts your probability of picking more winners.
DOUBLE pick the winners of two back-to-back races. It’s the most approachable multi-race bet and often serves as a great entry point for players looking to move beyond single-race wagers.
Last year's BC Classic $2 DOUBLE bet paid $346.60
PICK 3 correctly select the winners of three consecutive races. Slightly tougher than the Daily Double, but with greater reward potential for a small added challenge.
Last year's BC Classic $.50 PICK 3 bet paid $739.55
PICK 4 predict the winners of four races in a row. The payouts start to grow substantially here, and it's a favorite among intermediate-level bettors who enjoy a bit of suspense across multiple races.
Last year's BC Classic $.50 PICK 4 bet paid $3,473.25
PICK 5 choose the winning horse in five straight races. Hitting all five requires strong handicapping skills—and a little luck—but the payoff can be massive, especially with longshots in the mix.
Last year's BC Classic $.50 PICK 5 bet paid $26,281.20
Unlike traditional fixed-odds sports betting, where the payout is predetermined, horse racing uses a pari-mutuel system. This means that all bets on a particular race are pooled together, and the odds can change as more money is wagered until the pools close and the race goes off.
Horse racing odds represent the potential payout for a bet relative to your stake. Let’s break down what some example odds like 5/1, 5/2, and 9/5 mean, and how to calculate your winnings for a WIN bet.
When you see 5/1 odds, it means that for every $1 you wager, you’ll win $5 if your horse comes in first. That’s 5 times your bet! Plus, you get your original $1 stake back. So, with a $2 WIN bet on a horse that is 5/1 odds, you’d win $10 ($5 for every $1 you bet) plus your initial $2 stake back, for a total of $12 in payout.
Example bet at 5/1 odds:
WINBet: $2
Horse Odds: 5/1
Total Payout: $12 (your $10 in winnings ($5 for every $1 you bet) + your $2 stake back)
With 5/2 odds, you’ll win $5 for every $2 bet. This is often considered a "shorter" odd, meaning your return is smaller compared to 5/1, but still a nice payout. For a $2 WIN bet, you'd win $7 (your $5 in winnings ($5 for every $2 you bet) plus your original $2 stake back, for a total of $7.
Example bet at 5/2 odds:
WINBet: $2
Horse Odds: 5/2
Total Payout: $7 (your $5 in winnings ($5 for every $2 you bet) + your $2 stake back)
With 9/5 odds, you’ll win $9 for every $5 bet. Like 5/2 odds, this payout is lower compared to 5/1, but still offers a good return. For a $5 WIN bet, you would receive $14 (your $9 in winnings ($9 for every $5 you bet) plus your original $5 stake back, for a total of $14.
Example:
WINBet: $5
Horse Odds: 9/5
Payout: $14 (your $9 in winnings ($9 for every $5 you bet) plus your $5 stake back)


SCENE SETTER: The Breeders’ Cup opens with its youngest event as the Juvenile Turf Sprint renews for just the ninth time. Its first 8 editions have proven to be the most formful of all 14 Breeders’ Cup divisions by both average win price and least likely to produce an upset winner over 10-1. Keeneland-hosted events extend to 5-1/2 furlongs after a series of 5-furlong tilts in California in recent years. The European contingent, which makes up 9-of-12 slots in the starting gate, is led by LIBERTANGO, favored among international bookmakers and a Royal Ascot winner in June who exits a second in the Group 1 Cheverly Park at Newmarket. Other popular marks in the European books are FINAL OBJECTIVE, a Group 2 winner at Doncaster last out, and FORCE NOIR, beaten just a neck for Group 1 glory in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket last month. America’s most-fancied hope looks to be Grade 3 Matron heroine BRICKYARD BELLE, unbeaten in 2 starts.
JTS AT KEENELAND: Golden Pal wired the field at 4-5 in the 2020 edition; Magic Mischief rallied last-to-first at 6-1 to win the 2022 renewal. Race not yet inaugurated when Kee hosted 2015.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
Workouts courtesy 1st.tv, Keeneland.com, Bruno With The Works, KTDF, Breeders' Cup Ltd.
The average JTS winner has paid $11.86; 13% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more.
Europeans and Americans are deadlocked at 4 wins apiece in the 8-year history of the TS, including a split at Keeneland (USA: Golden Pal 2020; Euro: Mischief Magic 2022).
Europeans have accounted for 2 of the 3 trifecta slots in this race each of the past 4 years.
The last 6 winners of this race all made at least 3 prior starts to the Breeders’ Cup: Golden Pal (3), Twilight Gleaming (4), Mischief Magic (5), Big Evs (5), Magnum Force (4), Cy Fair (3).
Notable JTF trainer records: Aidan O’Brien 0-10. Wesley Ward (3) only trainer with more than 1 win in this division.
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SCENE SETTER: EMPHATIC wired Keeneland’s Alcibiades and brings an unblemished 3-for-3 record to the Breeders’ Cup. She’ll vie for favoritism, with Bob Baffert’s Del Mar Debutante winner MISS MONICA, a blowout winner in two starts at Del Mar this summer. She’s joined in the CA-to-KY trip by DOMAIN EXPANSION, whose 14-1 upset in the Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita sent heads scratching. Also in the land of the unbeaten is MANUKA HONEY, guided to victory in the Grade 3 Pocahontas by Luis Saez. This race will finish at the sixteenth-pole finish line, meaning the 990-foot stretch run reduces to just 660 feet.
JF AT KEENELAND: Key preps Oak Leaf (Songbird 2015), Frizette (Vequist 2020) and Alcibiades (Wonder Wheel 2022) each represented by a winner in 3 local editions. Winners were wire-to-wire, pressing first over and deep closer in succession.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average JF winner has paid $20.42 and 21% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
New York’s Frizette Stakes has springboard 15 Juvenile Fillies winners, most of any prep race in any of the 14 Breeders’ Cup divisions. What’s more? 34 of 42 all-time JF winners exited the Frizette, Alcibiades (Keeneland) or Oak Leaf (Santa Anita).
Last year Super Corredora became the first JF winner ever to step out of a maiden race to win and the third from a non-stakes (first since Beholder in 2012). She was the first west coast-based or west coast-prepped JF winner since Champagne Room in 2016.
Seven times in the last 14 years the Juvenile Fillies pacesetter has taken the field wire to wire, including Super Corredora at 8-1 odds last year.
The $19.60 win return last year was the largest in the JF in 8 years.
Notable JF trainer records: Todd Pletcher 0-20, Kenny McPeek 0-16, Mark Casse 1-15 and Bob Baffert 2-28. Richard Mandella (3) is the only active trainer with more than 2 JF wins.
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SCENE SETTER: Aidan O’Brien’s SUN GODDESS will be one of theevent’s heaviest favorites. She’s won 6 of 8, including three Group 1s and hasa dominant feel about her similar to Lake Victoria for this barn 2 years ago. O’Brien’sson, Joseph, is represented by GREEN EMPRESS, most recently a Group 1 winner inFrance. Trainer Chad Brown is in a familiar perch with a top domestic threat in this division after DOMESTIC AGENDA romped home in the Miss Grillo at Belmont. VANTA left no doubt her superiority in California with scores in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita.
JFT AT KEENELAND: Winners have hailed from Canada (Catch a Glimpse 2015), America (Aunt Pearl 2020) and England (Meditate 2022). Favorites are 3: 2-1-0 in 3 local editions.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average JFT winner has paid $17.17 and 28% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Americans hold a massive 13-5 edge in the JFT all-time, but the Euros have gained traction winning the past 2 years at Del Mar, including a 1-2 sweep last year of the exacta.
Europeans and Americans have split favoritism 9 times apiece in the JFT.
No California-based filly has finished in the JFT exacta. The best finish was Colonel Joan’s third-place run in 2013.
Notable JF trainer records: Chad Brown 6-25, Todd Pletcher 1-15, Aidan O’Brien 2-19.
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SCENE SETTER: The east-west showdown between Champagne winner USS Valor and American Pharoah victor HUGHES lasted less than 24 hours before the former’s connections announced he was finished for 2026 (with an eye toward next year’s classics). That leaves HUGHES, at even-money on the ML, a heavy favorite for Bob Baffert. Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity went fast early-slow late as AMERICAN HISTORY reeled in dueling COACH POPE. The glamour division of Future Stars Friday at the Breeders’ Cup annually seeks the next Kentucky Derby winner – something only Street Sense (2006-‘07) and Nyquist (2015-’16) have managed to parlay. This race will finish at the sixteenth-pole finish line, meaning the 990-foot stretch run reduces to just 660 feet.
JUVENILE AT KEENELAND: Hard to argue with a winners’ roll consisting of Nyquist (2015), Essential Quality (2020) and Forte (2022), the latter pair exiting the local Breeders’ Futurity prep and Nyquist via the American Pharoah at SA. All 3 were second choice in the wagering.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Juvenile winner has paid $18.72 and 26% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
The Juvenile has been won wire-to-wire 3 times in the last 15 years: Citizen Bull (2024), Corniche (2021) and Storm the Court (2019) – all in California.
Santa Anita’s American Pharoah Stakes has springboarded 6 of the last 12 Juvenile winners and leads with 11 all-time wins in this race.
Notable Juvenile trainer records: Bob Baffert 6-41 (7 seconds), Todd Pletcher 5-29, Aidan O’Brien 1-16, Steve Asmussen 0-10.
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SCENE SETTER: Aidan O’Brien seeks an unprecedented fifth straight win in this Breeders’ Cup division with Royal Lodge hero HAFFNER, but his chances lessened after the scratch of GREAT BARRIER REEF. Favoritism now likely goes to O'Brien's son, Joseph, with FOLSOM BLUES, who leads the UK bookmaker markets. From Kentucky, AGATE skimmed inside to win Keeneland’s Bourbon Stakes. HOW’S AL TODAY sat that one out to train up to BCJT after beating AGATE in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. LET EM KNOW upset Belmont’s Pilgrim at 12-1 to sow further uncertainty in the US ranks.
JUVENILE TURF AT KEENELAND: Aidan O’Brien-trained Europeans won in 2015 (Hit It A Bomb) and 2022 (Victoria Road), while Mike Maker’s $62 upsetter Fire At Will held O’Brien to a runner-up finish as the favorite in 2020.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average JT winner has paid $16.49 and 16% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race 4 years in a row, the last 3 with the post-time favorite: Victoria Road (2022 at Keeneland), Unquestionable (2023 at Santa Anita), Henri Matisse (2024 at Del Mar) and Gstaad (2025 at Del Mar). He’s won it 8 times overall with a 25: 8-6-0 mark.
European-based horses account for 14 of the 19 Juvenile Turf winners all-time, including 5 in a row.
Newmarket Racecourse in England has been the final prep stop of 7 JT winners, while another 6 came via France (Longchamp 3, Chantilly 2, Deauville 1). Belmont leads all domestic tracks with 3 winners.
Notable JT trainer records: Aidan O’Brien 8-25, Charlie Appleby 3-7, John Gosden 2-4, Chad Brown 1-16, Todd Pletcher 1-16, Mark Casse 0-17.
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SCENE SETTER: With defending champ Splendora bypassing this spot to stretch out in distance for the Distaff, the baton will be passed to a new champion in this 7-furlong event. The last time the F&M Sprint was at Keeneland, Chad Brown had the filly to beat in Goodnight Olive. He’s got that again in WAYS AND MEANS if her Saratoga excellence transfers to Keeneland. But she’s 0-5 outside New York, which instills confidence in Kentucky-based stakes winners KILWIN, EVANESCENCE and EXPLORA, the latter a capable Bob Baffert stablemate to last year’s winner of this race. SWEET AZTECA has won 8 of her last 9 starts on the west coast in a stop-and-start career and looks to make her first Breeders’ Cup at age 6.
FMS AT KEENELAND: Trainer Chad Brown has won 2 of 3 local editions – late-running Wavell Avenue at 10-1 in 2015 and stalking 8-5 favorite Goodnight Olive in 2022. Bob Baffert wired with favorite Gamine in 2020. Sophomores have collected 2 of 3 trifecta slots in the past 2 Kee renewals.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average FMS winner has paid $22.58 ($16.31 without Bar of Gold paying $135.40 in 2017) and 26% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
The FMS has never been won wire-to-wire. Its pacemakers have a paltry 19: 0-3-3 record all-time. Last year’s front-running favorite Hope Road settled for third.
Only 4 of 19 FMS winners all-time prepped on the west coast at Santa Anita or Del Mar, last year’s Splendora the first since 2016.
Keeneland’s Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes produced 5 straight FMS winners from 2009-’13, but none since the track returned to dirt in 2014. Vahva finished second last year.
3-year-olds have won the FMS 3 times: Shamrock Rose (2018), Covfefe (2019), Gamine (2020).
Notable FMS trainer records: Chad Brown 3-9, Bob Baffert 2-13, John Sadler 0-10.


SCENE SETTER: The Turf Sprint historically ranks as the most likely Breeders’ Cup division to produce a longshot winner at 10-1 or more. Those upset aspirants have Wesley Ward’s 3-year-old BACIO to beat. He is 5-for-6 and shipped to York to win the Group 1 Nunthorpe after scoring a listed Royal Ascot road trip win. That Nunthorpe score came over ’24 BC Turf Sprint winner STARLUST, who returns stateside after missing a fall campaign a year ago. He may not be the only past BC champ to appear. Last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint winner CY FAIR takes on the boys and look for a rare, dual title in her BC trophy case. She would be the fourth filly to win this division in the last 7 years, which includes SHISOSPICY, who tries to defend her title. COMANCHE BRAVE is the now horse from Europe as the Donnacha O’Brien colt has won 3 of his last 4, including Group 1s in England and Ireland.
TURF SPRINT AT KEENELAND: Of the 8 largest payouts in this race’s history, Keeneland has hosted 3 of them, including $87.78 event-topper Caravel upsetting in 2022. Americans have won 2 of 3, both prepping locally during Keeneland’s Fall Meet, while Glass Slippers (2020) scored via France.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average TS winner has paid $29.13 and 44% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds – including 5 of the last 6 years.
Fillies/mares ran 1-2 last year with Shisospicy and Ag Bullet both exiting Kentucky Downs performances.
Fillies have won 3 of the last 6 years: Glass Slippers (2020 at Keeneland), Caravel (2022 at Keeneland) and Shisospicy (2025 at Del Mar).
Americans have dominated the Turf Sprint with 16 of 18 wins; Glass Slippers (2020) and Starlust (2024) are the only European winners.
15 of 18 TS winners prepped in turf sprints, while a trio cut back from turf miles (Mizdirection ‘13, Bobby’s Kitten ‘14, Obviously ‘16).
Defending champions are 2-for-11 in this division. Repeat winners were Mizdirection (2012-’13) and Stormy Liberal (2017-’18).
Notable TS trainer records: Peter Miller 3-12, Wesley Ward 1-16.
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SCENE SETTER: With Godolphin and Bill Mott opting to run Knightsbridge in the Classic, this race immediately became a wide-open tussle. 2024 champ FULL SERRANO is back, seeking to join Cody’s Wish and Goldencents as a two-time winner of this race. Keeneland lover FURTHER ADO, a perfect 2-for-2 at the track parlayed victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass in April to KY Derby favoritism, where he finished 11th. FORGED STEEL won the Grade 1 Goodwood last out at Santa Anita, his second major score at that track this year following the Grad 2 Gold Cup. This race will finish at the sixteenth-pole finish line, meaning the 990-foot stretch run reduces to just 660 feet.
DIRT MILE AT KEENELAND: Favorites have run the table in 3 editions, starting with Liam’s Map (2015, mid-pack trip), followed by Knicks Go (2020, wire-to-wire) and Cody’s Wish (2022, last-to-first). Winners prepped from 7, 8.5 and 9 furlongs.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average DM winner has paid $18.15 and 32% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Last year Nysos became the fifth odds-on DM winner the last 12 years and eighth winner at 5-2 or less odds during that span.
At least one 3-year-old has finished in the DM trifecta each of the last 10 years, including exacta finishers in 6 of the last 7 editions.
The Dirt Mile pacesetter has a 9: 4-3-0 record over the past 9 years, including last year's runner-up Citizen Bull.
14 of 19 Dirt Mile winners exited preps at a mile or longer while 5 stretched out from sprints.
Notable DM trainer records: Todd Pletcher 2-7, Bill Mott 2-4, Bob Baffert 1-15, Steve Asmussen 1-13.


SCENE SETTER: The European stronghold in this race could be in capable hands with the likes of four-time Group 1 winner BLUE BOLT and Prix de l’Opera runner-up PRECISE having entered. BLUE BOLT is universally regarded as the top three-year-old filly in Europe but stretches beyond a mile for the first time in this event. KATHYNMARISSA has been New York’s finest for Chad Brown, winning the Diana and Flower Bowl in succession. Brad Cox’s front-running STELLIFY was seventh in this event at Del Mar, but back home won the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon last out for a return chance. South African export GIMME A NOTHER has been on a 3-race heater, including the Beverly D and E.P. Taylor, for a Graham Motion barn that’s previously won this race.
FMT AT KEENELAND: Stephanie’s Kitten represented the Americans in 2015, but French Prix de ‘Opera alumnae Audraya (2020) and Tuesday (2022) have won the last 2. At least 1 Keeneland-prepped runner has been in all 3 superfectas.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average FMT winner has paid $20.08 and 30% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Favorites are just 2 for the last 20 in this division while 5 of the last 11 finished second.
Seven straight FMT winners last prepped outside of the US: 3 France, 2 England, 1 Japan, 1 Canada. Foreign-prepped horses won 2 of 3 Keeneland editions of this race.
4 straight FMT editions have seen a Woodbine-prepped runner in the trifecta.
3-year-olds have 9 wins in the FMT, all by Europeans, including a run in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022 and last year by France’s Gezora.
California preppers are 0-60 in the FMT all-time.
The FMT has only been won twice in its 26 years on the front end: Dayatthespa (2014) and Intercontinental (2005).
Notable FMT trainer records: Chad Brown 4-32 (5 seconds), Sir Michael Stoute 3-9, Aidan O’Brien 1-21, Graham Motion 1-12, Bill Mott 0-10.
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SCENE SETTER: A division beset by retirements and injuries to its elder stars gets buoyed by one of the more dynamic 3-year-olds in some time, ENGLISHMAN. The Keeneland-based colt will be making his local racing debut on the heels of a 4-for-5 record that includes scintillating wins in Saratoga’s Woody Stephens and Jerkens Memorial. ENGLISHMAN figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. The X-factor could be Japanese runner T O ELVIS, who dropped jaws on Kentucky Derby Day when he easily blew past a renowned field of American sprinters in the Churchill Downs Handicap. He hasn’t been seen since but has won 6 of 9 and will be one of the most anticipated horses to lay eyes on during training periods. The US-based elder sprinters are led by BUILT and NAKATOMI from Kentucky as well as the improving LISTENUPSHANCE and a seemingly out-of-nowhere rocket named LIAM SMITH in California.
SPRINT AT KEENELAND: The local Phoenix Stakes produced 2015 pace-pressing 3YO winner Runhappy as well as 2020 deep-closing winner Whitmore, while late-running Elite Power scored via New York in 2022.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Sprint winner has paid $19.57 and 38% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Sprint favorite has been 8-5 or less in 9 of the last 10 years, winning twice.
The Sprint has had at least 1 horse finish second or third at 20-1 or more odds in each of the last 5 years, including last year’s 39-1 third-place finisher Dr. Venkman.
Sprint wins all-time are an even split between horses prepped in New York (15) and California (15). Kentucky (7) is a distant third.
3-year-olds have won the Sprint 9 times, but not since Runhappy and Drefong went back-to-back in 2015 and 2016.
Notable Sprint trainer records: Bob Baffert 5-20, Peter Miller 2-7, Steve Asmussen 1-17, Bill Mott 2-8, Todd Pletcher 1-10.


SCENE SETTER: Godolphin and Charlie Appleby seek back-to-back victories in this race with NOTABLE SPEECH, who can also extend Appleby’s record number of training wins in the Mile to five. NOTABLE SPEECH warmed up for this by defeating America’s best turf horse, DETERMINISTIC, in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in Canada, which local ace RHETORICAL prepped by winning the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf for the second year in a row. He was 4th in last year’s Mile on the road at Del Mar. Other Europeans to watch are LAKE FOREST, runner-up behind a slow pace in RHETORICAL’s Turf Mile win, and the Aidan O’Brien due of TRUE LOVE and PUERTO RICO, 1st and 3rd respectively last out in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at Longchamp.
MILE AT KEENELAND: American filly Tepin scored the 2015 contest while Europeans Order of Australia ($148.40 in 2020) and Modern Games ($4.76 in 2022) have since provided payouts in the extremes. Pacemakers finished out of the money in all 3.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Mile winner has paid $23.07 and 26% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
4 of the last 5 Mile winners were 3-1 or less odds, including Notable Speech last year at 5-2.
Europeans have won the Mile 6 of the last 7 years and 7 of the last 9.
10 fillies/mares have won the Mile, most of any open Breeders’ Cup division, most recently Uni in 2019.
The Mile has produced 2 of the 4-largest $2 win payoffs in Breeders’ Cup event history: $148.60 Order of Australia (2020) and $131.60 Court Vision (2011).
Repeat winners of the BC Mile include Wise Dan (2012-’13), Goldikova (2008-’09-’10), Lure (1992-’93) and Miesque (1987-88).
Notable Mile trainer records: Charlie Appleby 4-5, Aidan O’Brien 1-30, Mark Casse 2-9, Bill Mott 1-24, Chad Brown 1-15, Sir Michael Stoute 1-13.


SCENE SETTER: NITROGEN blossomed this summer at Saratoga, winning the Phipps and finishing a bang-up second in the Whitney against the boys, an effort that teased a potential bid in the Classic. She coasted in the Beldame most recently and looks to one-up her performance last year at Del Mar behind wire-to-wire winner Scylla. Her chief competition figures to come from Personal Ensign and Spinster winner FULLY SUBSCRIBED. The Chad Brown trainee enters this year's Distaff on a three-race win streak. Add in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner SUPER CORREDORA off a bounce-back victory and there’s a lot of history here. Two-time Delaware Handicap winner REGALED adds to a deep division.
BC Future Stars Friday Exacta-Thon Plays >>
DISTAFF AT KEENELAND: Todd Pletcher has bookended the event with Stopchargingmaria (2015) and Malathaat (2022), while Brad Cox tallied in-between with Monomoy Girl (2020). The 2 most-recent have seen 24-1 and 25-1 shots in the trifecta. The pacesetter has been out of the money in all 3.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Distaff winner has paid $18.53 and 17% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Keeneland’s Spinster has springboarded a Distaff-best 14 winners all-time, including 3 of the last 4 years. NYRA’s Beldame (9) and Santa Anita’s Zenyatta (8) are next-best.
3-year-olds have won the Distaff 12 times, most recently Thorpedo Anna in 2024, while sophomore Nitrogen finished second a year ago.
Only 1 Distaff winner in the last 19 editions has been 10-1 or more odds, 53-1 Japanese stunner March Lorraine at Del Mar in 2021.
Only twice has the Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up come back the next year to win the race: inaugural 1984 bridesmaid Life’s Magic in ’85 and the very next year when ’85 runner-up Lady’s Secret won the ’86 Distaff en route to Horse of the Year. Nitrogen, last year’s second-place finisher, will try to bridge that 40-year gap.
Notable Distaff trainer records: Bill Mott 6-17, Todd Pletcher 3-24, Shug McGaughey 3-16, Brad Cox 3-5, Chad Brown 0-11.


SCENE SETTER: The Turf produced the biggest upset ($57.40) at last year’s Breeders’ Cup with former European steeplechaser ETHICAL DIAMOND and he’s back with more fanfare this time. He’s a far cry from the best from across the pond, as the combination of DIAMOND NECKLACE, BENVENUTO CELLINI, BAY CITY ROLLER, SURVIE, EL CORDOBES, HOTAZHELL, TIFFANY, and JOHANNA WALSH merit respect, as does Japan’s DEEP MONSTER. Joe Hirsch 1-2 finishers MINARET STATION and FAR BRIDGE, Arlington Million winner BURNHAM SQUARE and Del Mar Handicap 1 winner TEST SCORE are the lone Yanks left carrying the flag.
TURF AT KEENELAND: Europeans have swept locally via preps in England (Aidan O’Brien’s Found, 2015), France (Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa, 2020) and Germany (Charlie Appleby’s Rebel’s Romance, 2022). They’ve accounted for all 6 exacta spots as well as 8 of the 12 superfecta placings.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Turf winner has paid $20.34 and 29% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Europeans have won 22 of the last 27 Turf editions, including 10 of the last 11.
Last year’s winner Ethical Diamond ($57.40) became the fourth $50-plus winner in the Turf’s 42-year history.
Last year Ethical Diamond became the 20th Irish-bred to win the Turf, fourth straight and fifth in the past 6 years.
5 fillies/mares have won the Turf, all based in Europe: Tarnawa (2020), Enable (2018), Found (2015), Miss Alleged (1991) and Pebbles (1985).
Johar (2003) is the only California-based Turf winner in the last 25 years.
Notable Turf trainer records: Aidan O’Brien 7-37 (6 seconds), Charlie Appleby 3-8, Andre Fabre 3-27, Sir Michael Stoute 4-15, John Gosden 1-13, Chad Brown 1-16, Bill Mott 2-22, Phil D’Amato 0-10.


SCENE SETTER: Defending Classic winner FOREVER YOUNG already made a successful return from Japan with a cruise-control victory on opening day at the rebuilt Belmont Park. He’ll try to join Tiznow (2000-’01) as the only back-to-back Classic winners and a victory would sniff the $36 million mark in career earnings. His tote dominance depends largely on the touch-and-go status of 2025 Horse of the Year SOVEREIGNTY, who missed his prep in the Jockey Club Gold Cup against FOREVER YOUNG with a reported hoof abscess. It was a reported fever that forced his scratch Classic raceweek a year ago at Del Mar. SOVEREIGNTY’s stablemate and Pacific Classic champ, KNIGHTSBRIDGE, was a somewhat of a surprise entrant, and figures to liven up a pace already slated to include Preakness victor NAPOLEON SOLO. Keeneland long has been the home training spot for Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner GOLDEN TEMPO, as he seeks a Classic victory to cap a storybook season for trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Jose Ortiz.
Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf Analysis >>
CLASSIC AT KEENELAND: Speedy star Californians have owned this race locally, namely Kentucky Derby winners American Pharoah (2015) and Authentic (2020) for Bob Baffert as well as unbeaten Flightline (2022) for John Sadler. All 3 had a Baffert 3YO in the trifecta.

1/ST TV has curated a collection of workouts for each Breeders’ Cup Division. These workouts will be released and updated as they are filmed.
The average Classic winner has paid $22.59 ($16.57 without Arcangues’ paying $269.20 in 1993) and 21% of its editions have been won at 10-1 or more odds.
Last year Japan’s Forever Young became the third foreign-prepped Classic winner. He followed 1993 French stunner Arcangues and England’s 2009 synthetic success Raven’s Pass. All 3 foreign-based Classic winners were at California-hosted events. Japan has now had a Classic top-3 finisher in 3 straight events.
The only Classic winner in the last 15 years at double-digit odds was 14-1 Drosselmeyer in 2011.
3-year-olds have won the Classic 14 times, most recently Sierra Leone in 2024. The last Classic without a sophomore in the superfecta was 2018.
Kentucky Derby alumni have won the last 3 Classics: Forever Young (age 4), Sierra Leone (3) and White Abarrio (4).
The last 9 Classic winners have exited 9 different prep races, 5 of them coming in New York.
Notable Classic trainer records: Bob Baffert 4-31, Bill Mott 2-21, Todd Pletcher 1-23, Steve Asmussen 2-7, Aidan O’Brien 0-18.
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