Note: $104,581 pick-6 carryover begins in Race 3.
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Tom and Jazzy; 2-Aurelian Man
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the opener but not with a high degree of confidence. Any one of the six could win, so the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Tom and Jazzy is solid on numbers, has two prior wins over the local lawn, and takes a significant class drop from a first level allowance event to a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claimer. He’s never been one to trust but may have found his friends today. Aurelian Man should be prominent throughout – very possibly the controlling speed - and in his second start off a layoff appears primed for a major effort. He’s not particular fast on numbers but given his projected trip may be set for a career top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Night Beacon; 4-Angel From Above; 5-Runnin On Promises.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There appears to be three quick fillies in this five runner juvenile dash, and all three should be included in rolling exotic play. Night Beacon has been impressive in the morning for R. Hanson with three excellent recent drills that included in a sharp half mile team breeze April 28 (4f, :47hg) in which she was much the best in a team drill. If she breaks cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Spun to Run will take some catching. Angel From Above likewise has displayed talent leading up to her debut, is bred to win early (Maclean’s Music) and hails from a barn that generally does very well with babies. A :34 flat bullet breeze April kinda jumps off the page. Runnin On Promise, from the first crop of the high class sprinter Promises Fulfilled, looks to have some talent, though we have no video from her a.m. preparation to lean on. The barn has excellent stats with first timers, so we’ll toss here in.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Tembo; 3-Granada Flavor.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Tembo has recent consistent form and should fire another big shot in this $10,000 main track miler for older horses. Nosed out while nearly six lengths clear of the rest in his last start, the S. Knapp-trained gelding won’t need much more than that to return to the winner’s circle against this modest band, and while he hasn’t been out in more than two months (and was off nearly two months before that), the son of Carpe Diem projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have no excuses. Big class dropper Granada Flavor is the one to fear most. All three of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, and while his two races since being claimed last summer have been uninspiring, the S. McCarthy-trained gelding takes a realistic class drop with numbers that fit and seems very likely to return to good form in this soft spot.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Pink Ace; 5-Blonde Bombshell.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Pink Ace launches a comeback for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners and fits these starter allowance conditions perfectly, so we’re expecting the lightly raced four-year-old filly to fire a big shot off the bench. A recent sharp five furlong gate breeze (:59 3/5, second fastest of 43) catches the eye, and with one of the stable’s “go-to” riders taking the call we’re expecting the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Aikenite to be extremely live. This will be her first try on grass; hopefully she’ll like it though there’s little in her pedigree to suggest that she’ll move up on the sod. Blonde Bombshell wore down a $32,000 claiming field over the local lawn in mid-March and rates a reasonable look right back while being protected today in a sign of confidence. However, she does her best work from off the pace, and in a race that projects to have soft early splits she may not get the help up front that she’d prefer.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Midnight Love; 1-Lettheliquourtalk.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Midnight Love lacks tactical speed but should have his chance to tag the speed close home once again, just as he did in a similar $32,000 seller here in his most recent start in mid-February. However, being away for 10 weeks and not being raised in class raises some red flags for the H. Palma-trained colt, so while we’ll certainly use him we’re not in love with the pattern. Lettheliquortalk has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and will be re-quipped with blinkers, so the J. Mullins-trained trained gelding could very well return to winning form in this weak affair. His runaway maiden claiming score three races back charts very well with this group, and with “win rider” H. Berrios staying aboard the son of Goldencents will try to bust out from the rail and take his field as far as he can.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Yellow Sun Dress
Backups/savers: 6-Perfect in Gray.
Forecast: Yellow Sun Dress was a visually pleasing winner of a stronger-than-average maiden $50,000 dash here in her first outing in nearly a year (and in just her second career start) over this course and distance for high percentage trainer Mark Glatt and is protected today while seeking a repeat score. The daughter of Karakontie earned a very good number, shows an easy breeze to tick her over last week, retains K. Frey, and seems quite solid as a logical rolling exotic single. The barn has an excellent record with repeaters (22%) so we’re expecting a similar performance today and perhaps even better.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Sabres; 7-I’m Still in It.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Sabres drops to the bottom maiden claiming ($20,000) level and adds blinkers, so the D. O’Neill-trained filly could be too quick for this modest band based on speed figures and the race’s pace projection. No excuses. I’m Still in It has been sparingly raced but she does exit a fast, highly rated turf sprint and certainly will enjoy this softer assignment. However, all four of her prior starts have come on grass, so this switch to dirt leaves us in the dark. Have to respect the barn, though.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Grazen in the Sun; 6-Hotitude.
Backups/savers: 7-Issa Court.
Forecast: Grazen in the Sun just won a strong Hillside dash vs. California-bred foes last month and today returns to the claiming ranks (but remains above her claim level) while trying her luck over the flat course. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and a may have found a home on grass for her high percentage connections, who probably won’t still have her after the race. Hotitude is good enough to win if she’s healthy and she is a two-time winner over the local lawn, but the pattern is suspicious, to say the least. The K. Mulhall-trained eight-year-old mare has never raced this cheaply, and following a nine month layoff the veteran mare returns for a modest $20,000 tag after missing by a head in an $80,000 optional claimer in which she was protected last summer at Del Mar. The work tab looks average, but she did win following a year vacation over this turf course last year. There are simply too many mixed signals to have confidence, but Pick-6 players have to use her just in case.
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